Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

[Wulfer]

I do a lot of lurking but, I post more in the winter period. I'm like a wolf that comes down from the mountain. Chattanooga is a fun place to watch in the winter!

 

[NCSNOW]

Boy if the CFS could ever be right, Id cash out with the 12/1-12/2 Southernwx forum special it advertised at 0Z. Then the artic dump coming down the plains week before Christmas.

 

[Stevo24]

Boy if the CFS could ever be right, Id cash out with the 12/1-12/2 Southernwx forum special it advertised at 0Z. Then the artic dump coming down the plains week before Christmas.

I take it as a good sign that we are even getting some fantasy storms right now for December. Means things are going the right direction.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Looks like the site is back up and running!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s happening!

 

[KyloG]

Geez….that looks good

 

[jackendrickwx]

Geez….that looks good

View attachment 176798View attachment 176799

i'd be lying if i said i wasn't at least a little intrigued by the cold showing up beyond this late next week push. its out there, but man its loading up and ready to drop somewhere out of canada

 

[GaWx]

MJO model progs:

-11/18 GEFS/EPS runs similar to yesterday day by day along with good progression into 7(GEFS) and well into 7 (EPS).

-11/17 extended EPS remains consistent with recent runs with it getting into 8 on 12/14. But the big news is that the extended GEFS is its most progressive yet and with it actually moving into 8 a day earlier than the EPS (12/13).

At RDU/BWI since 1974 for the 23 three+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged out: lots of variation but with solid tendencies

-78%/61% of Dec phase 8 were cold

-Compare that to only 22%/13% that were mild

-Phase 8’s three+ day long periods have averaged 5 days with the longest being 13 days

-Phases 1 and 2 have also averaged cold at BWI but with again lots of variation but with solid tendencies

Based on all of this as well as a typical couple of weeks+ lag of cold in the E US after an SSWE, I’m hoping for cold domination to start in the E US around Dec 15th. Until then, I expect mild to dominate.

11/17 GEFS extended:

 

[griteater]

 

[CaryWx]

It’s happening! View attachment 176797

Is that coming from the SSW?

 

[Tarheel1]

Is that coming from the SSW?

I guess it’s a combo of the PV split/warming and the movement of MJO into phases 7,8, and 1. Cold should start up here thanksgiving weekend and progress to the SE as we head into mid December

 

[NCwx1992]

I take it as a good sign that we are even getting some fantasy storms right now for December. Means things are going the right direction.

CFS & the CMC ensemble & GFS ensemble all showing that same fantasy storm right now for beginning of December for VA/NC and northward -- and right now it means next to nothing but if it is still showing up in a week

 

[Tarheel1]

CFS & the CMC ensemble & GFS ensemble all showing that same fantasy storm right now for beginning of December for VA/NC and northward -- and right now it means next to nothing but if it is still showing up in a week

Like this??

 

[Rain Cold]

Is that coming from the SSW?

I'd expect the effects from that to lag by a few weeks.

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 176800

View attachment 176802

View attachment 176801

The GEFS is probably overcooking this MJO event a bit as it tends to do in the west pacific, but these kind of zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific coupled with the collapsing -IOD and reversal of Indonesian Throughflow probably spell the end for La Niña.

 

[Rain Cold]

Lol #winning

 

[griteater]

The GEFS is probably overcooking this MJO event a bit as it tends to do in the west pacific, but these kind of zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific coupled with the collapsing -IOD and reversal of Indonesian Throughflow probably spell the end for La Niña.

Agree, I like it as an upper outlier. It's probably too amplified, but the good news is that the really weak MJO models probably aren't amplified enough