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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Webberweather53 said:
There’s nothing to teach anyone here, other than we’re just nitpicking details in the planetary wave pattern several weeks out for a specific forecast period that mind you, hasn’t verified yet. The forecast could look even more -PNA heavy in a week or so or vis versa.

If the +PNA doesn’t show up exactly during the first week of December but appears several days later, big deal, it’s still arguably early December. Even if it doesn’t happen, oh whale it’s just not that serious to me, especially since I handled the upcoming phases of the EPO/NAO/AO and MJO generally correct nearly a month ago. If you can’t handle any discourse between yourself and I, and you also don’t want to get banned again, then just ignore and move on.
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Why don't you explain to the board how you disagreed with everything I postulated, but have now back pedaled to the notion my ideas were correct.

And yeah, it's pretty serious to you but you and I both know your issues with me are more about jealousy than anything else, don't we? Don't come at me if you don't want it. Shall we review some of your past statements again showing just how serious you take this since you've exhibited your deficiencies in reading comprehension quite a few times to the board and obviously still haven't comprehended what I'm saying?

I hope the board finally sees you for what you are - a pandering, needy, hyperbolist poster who cares less about being a good meteorologist and more about being liked on an amateur weather forum. You my friend, are truly pathetic. Don't back pedal now like a little coward, stand up like a man and for once admit you were wrong and move on.
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies shows the likelihood of a reversal has shifted to now favoring ~11/28 over 11/25:

Today’s Euro Weeklies favors 11/28-9:
IMG_5452.png

The runs from 3 days ago and earlier favored an 11/25 reversal:
IMG_5406.png

Add in the typical several week lag and a potential of a mid-Dec phase 8 MJO followed hopefully by phases 1-2 and we’d have a realistic chance for a several week long period of cold domination in the E US starting as early as mid-Dec. Prior to this potential, there’d also likely be a mild dominated next 30 days, which shouldn’t be ignored.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that looks about right.

Pretty much copy & paste the last 30 years worth of La Niña Decembers.

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GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies shows the likelihood of a reversal has shifted to now favoring ~11/28 over 11/25:

Today’s Euro Weeklies favors 11/28-9:
View attachment 176722

The runs from 3 days ago and earlier favored an 11/25 reversal:
View attachment 176723

Add in the typical several week lag and a potential of a mid-Dec phase 8 MJO followed hopefully by phases 1-2 and we’d have a realistic chance for a several week long period of cold domination in the E US starting as early as mid-Dec. Prior to this potential, there’d also likely be a mild dominated next 30 days, which shouldn’t be ignored.
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CFS is very tame for the EAST and South thru Dec 18th. Some cold air but no sign of snow.
 
Can’t help but notice, the weeklies progression is like many -EPO events, but especially February 2014. Notice, starts out with a -PNA given the developing/maturing stage of the block, then the block starts to cutoff/retrograde, this allows the jet to accelerate further and chop of the block further, allows eastward progression of the cold (we get one peice, the other piece gets shoved back towards AK, then as the block regrades further, the troughing around AK does as well, and it forms a canonical +PNA. This same feature also could encourage another strong -NAO episode to show up, and by then, we would have a legitimate Arctic source in NH
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t help but notice, the weeklies progression is like many -EPO events, but especially February 2014. Notice, starts out with a -PNA given the developing/maturing stage of the block, then the block starts to cutoff/retrograde, this allows the jet to accelerate further and chop of the block further, allows eastward progression of the cold (we get one peice, the other piece gets shoved back towards AK, then as the block regrades further, the troughing around AK does as well, and it forms a canonical +PNA. This same feature also could encourage another strong -NAO episode to show up, and by then, we would have a legitimate Arctic source in NH
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View attachment 176725View attachment 176730
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View attachment 176726View attachment 176729
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Yeah this step down process is how these type of pattern changes typically evolve. Never made sense to think early December was going to go gangbusters right out of the gate. As long as we can keep the MJO on schedule, I feel great about weeks 3 & 4 of December. Great analysis.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t help but notice, the weeklies progression is like many -EPO events, but especially February 2014. Notice, starts out with a -PNA given the developing/maturing stage of the block, then the block starts to cutoff/retrograde, this allows the jet to accelerate further and chop of the block further, allows eastward progression of the cold (we get one peice, the other piece gets shoved back towards AK, then as the block regrades further, the troughing around AK does as well, and it forms a canonical +PNA. This same feature also could encourage another strong -NAO episode to show up, and by then, we would have a legitimate Arctic source in NH
1
View attachment 176724View attachment 176727
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View attachment 176725View attachment 176730
3
View attachment 176726View attachment 176729
Click to expand...

Yeah as we talked about in one of our chats earlier this week, that’s normally how these big North Pacific blocking events evolve in winter.

About 2 weeks after the peak of the -EPO is usually when the core of the cold swings eastward as northerly flow on the backside of the retrograding block over Siberia raises the EPO enough to accelerate the pacific jet and dislodge the cold from the Rockies.

 
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