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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

11/17/25 MJO forecasts is mixed bag:

1) 11/17/25 GEFS backtracked to ~2 days slower than yesterday’s slightly more progressive/weaker run to being nearly identical to the more lethargic and stronger run of 11/15 (not what I wanted to see):

GEFS 11/17: stronger/less progressive vs GEFS 11/16 and close to GEFS 11/15
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GEFS 11/16: was slightly more progressive/weaker than GEFS 11/15
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GEFS 11/15:
IMG_5422.png
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2) However, 11/17/25 EPS remains similar to yesterday’s slightly more progressive run and continues to be a good bit more progressive/weaker than GEFS, two things I like:

11/17 EPS: similar to 11/16 EPS and more progressive/weaker than 11/17 GEFS
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11/16 EPS: slightly more progressive than 11/15 EPS
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11/15 EPS:
IMG_5423.png
 
I'm quite enthusiastic about a pretty substantial pattern shift that could occur sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas that could set the stage for winter weather down south. Of course it's too early for specifics but it's difficult to ignore how well things look right now. IF *and I stress this part a lot* IF we can get things to come together, I wouldn't be surprise to be talking winter weather chances in December potentially even for non-climo favored areas. For now it's nothing more than eye candy till we get closer but nonetheless a look for a great December relative to the past few years. This will be something we definitely have to track. Either way it's definitely getting to that time of year. Happy Monday friends!
 
GaWx said:
Helping make this warmth possible has been the lack of phase 8 MJO during the last 10 Decembers. Actually, there’s been only one Dec phase 8 of 3 days+ since 2009 and that was during 12/21-24/2017! That’s crazy! Compare that to the 7 of the prior 15 years and the 10 for the 15 years before that! (Ironically though, 12/21-24/2017 was mild in RDU/E US though we know they’re not all cold but rather ~80% BN to MBN in RDU.) Some of this was bad timing with them being either in late Nov or early Jan. But a good bit of it was the MJO detouring around 8.

That’s why I’m not at all assuming a multi-day phase 8 will definitely occur. Taking it with a grain for now.
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Agree wholeheartedly with this, but I'll take it a bit further. ENSO does not seem to have had much bearing on our weather the last 10 years at all, MJO/convection has had a much greater bearing IMO not just in December. Decembers torching even in ninas is a great example of that as mentioned, but also in Februarys which also torch in ninos (that are supposed to be cooler). Lots of torching every year no matter the enso, lol. Not sure the reason but tropical convection and its effect on the jet I believe is the main culprit. With the globe warming (for whatever reason) I think that has made mjo convection a bigger player on our seasonal climate. And with it not coming around to 8-2 in winter very often, I think that gives us a reason why we have struggled so much.

This year we have lots of reasons to expect that the mjo will time right for us. But until it actually gets into 8 like last year, I'll be looking at our cold winter with a bit of side-eye. But I have a lot of confidence it gets there due to all the educated and persuasive research and analysis given by you and our dedicated folks on the forum!
 
Continued good news this is an increase from 96% yesterday

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Much like it has the last few weeks, the EPS still shows the bulk of the upper level circulation footprint of the MJO working its way into the Western Hemisphere in early December.

Judging by the eastward phase speed of the negative velocity potential anomalies of ~17-18 m/s, this is actually a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave

It’s not too unusual to MJO events look like Kelvin Waves in the western hemisphere during the winter, especially in the absence of El Niño.

IMG_6625.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Agree wholeheartedly with this, but I'll take it a bit further. ENSO does not seem to have had much bearing on our weather the last 10 years at all, MJO/convection has had a much greater bearing IMO not just in December. Decembers torching even in ninas is a great example of that as mentioned, but also in Februarys which also torch in ninos (that are supposed to be cooler). Lots of torching every year no matter the enso, lol. Not sure the reason but tropical convection and its effect on the jet I believe is the main culprit. With the globe warming (for whatever reason) I think that has made mjo convection a bigger player on our seasonal climate. And with it not coming around to 8-2 in winter very often, I think that gives us a reason why we have struggled so much.

This year we have lots of reasons to expect that the mjo will time right for us. But until it actually gets into 8 like last year, I'll be looking at our cold winter with a bit of side-eye. But I have a lot of confidence it gets there due to all the educated and persuasive research and analysis given by you and our dedicated folks on the forum!
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Great post. While I wouldn’t say the ENSO state hasn’t mattered, it has definitely needed to match up at the right time with the MJO to bring colder weather and snow opportunities to us.
 
lexxnchloe said:
Warm start to Dec

View attachment 176754
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No surprise at all as consistent with the progged MJO pattern I expect a mild dominated start to Dec outside of any cool breaks from possible strong CAD for especially the CAD favored areas.

I remain on the mainly mild dominated train through ~12/15 in the SE. it will probably cool down for the 2nd half thanks to the lagged effect from the upcoming very weak SPV, especially if the MJO can actually make it to a slow move through phases 8/1/2 starting in mid-Dec. Fingers crossed!
 
GaWx said:
No surprise at all as consistent with the progged MJO pattern I expect a mild dominated start to Dec outside of any cool breaks from possible strong CAD for especially the CAD favored areas.

I remain on the mainly mild dominated train through ~12/15 in the SE. it will probably cool down for the 2nd half thanks to the lagged effect from the upcoming very weak SPV, especially if the MJO can actually make it to a slow move through phases 8/1/2 starting in mid-Dec. Fingers crossed!
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Still a warm start and throw in a Dec TS to boot

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Webberweather53 said:
I’m really impressed by the long duration of these near 0 zonal wind anomalies over the polar cap.

View attachment 176767
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This is by a good margin the weakest SPV on any run. If this verifies closely, this would be the weakest late Nov to early Dec SPV by a good margin since way back in 1987! We know that one month later there was a historic SE winter storm, which gave Atlanta 4” of sleet, very heavy snowfall in some other areas, and ZR down all of the way down here.
 
tennessee storm said:
Another big hypster also… be honest . All
About the hits
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Allan is pretty good with what he does. I follow him, @webberweather, and @mitchwest on Twitter. One dude who seems to be nothing but argumentative with every professional met and amateur met on Twitter is some dude named Ronnie. I guess he used to be on here. He’s a jerk. Blocked me over a discussion on a football injury post.
 
tramadoc said:
Allan is pretty good with what he does. I follow him, @webberweather, and @mitchwest on Twitter. One dude who seems to be nothing but argumentative with every professional met and amateur met on Twitter is some dude named Ronnie. I guess he used to be on here. He’s a jerk. Blocked me over a discussion on a football injury post.
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Ronnie Bobbit. He used to post here and got banned. Every tweet i made, he would come after me and clog up the post with stupidity. I have never ever blocked anybody from anything, but I had to block him. It was so annoying and disruptive.
 
Rain Cold said:
Ronnie Bobbit. He used to post here and got banned. Every tweet i made, he would come after me and clog up the post with stupidity. I have never ever blocked anybody from anything, but I had to block him. It was so annoying and disruptive.
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He’s… different. Does nothing but argue and then insult people like Larry Cosgrove and Mike Masco. He’s said some pretty choice things about a couple of people here that post weather stuff on Twitter.

That’s all I’m saying about this.
 
I don’t think this is a good look and think it has changed a bit in the last few days!!??
Don’t want the super-cold out West!!!!
Yeah, “ don’t waste cold in December “ mongers everywhere, but if you only got one shot, you take it when you can get it!
 
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