Wulfer
Member
I do a lot of lurking but, I post more in the winter period. I'm like a wolf that comes down from the mountain. Chattanooga is a fun place to watch in the winter!
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Boy if the CFS could ever be right, Id cash out with the 12/1-12/2 Southernwx forum special it advertised at 0Z. Then the artic dump coming down the plains week before Christmas.
I take it as a good sign that we are even getting some fantasy storms right now for December. Means things are going the right direction.
Tsappfrog20
Member
Looks like the site is back up and running!!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It’s happening! 
i'd be lying if i said i wasn't at least a little intrigued by the cold showing up beyond this late next week push. its out there, but man its loading up and ready to drop somewhere out of canada
MJO model progs:
-11/18 GEFS/EPS runs similar to yesterday day by day along with good progression into 7(GEFS) and well into 7 (EPS).
-11/17 extended EPS remains consistent with recent runs with it getting into 8 on 12/14. But the big news is that the extended GEFS is its most progressive yet and with it actually moving into 8 a day earlier than the EPS (12/13).
At RDU/BWI since 1974 for the 23 three+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged out: lots of variation but with solid tendencies
-78%/61% of Dec phase 8 were cold
-Compare that to only 22%/13% that were mild
-Phase 8’s three+ day long periods have averaged 5 days with the longest being 13 days
-Phases 1 and 2 have also averaged cold at BWI but with again lots of variation but with solid tendencies
Based on all of this as well as a typical couple of weeks+ lag of cold in the E US after an SSWE, I’m hoping for cold domination to start in the E US around Dec 15th. Until then, I expect mild to dominate.
11/17 GEFS extended:
-11/18 GEFS/EPS runs similar to yesterday day by day along with good progression into 7(GEFS) and well into 7 (EPS).
-11/17 extended EPS remains consistent with recent runs with it getting into 8 on 12/14. But the big news is that the extended GEFS is its most progressive yet and with it actually moving into 8 a day earlier than the EPS (12/13).
At RDU/BWI since 1974 for the 23 three+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged out: lots of variation but with solid tendencies
-78%/61% of Dec phase 8 were cold
-Compare that to only 22%/13% that were mild
-Phase 8’s three+ day long periods have averaged 5 days with the longest being 13 days
-Phases 1 and 2 have also averaged cold at BWI but with again lots of variation but with solid tendencies
Based on all of this as well as a typical couple of weeks+ lag of cold in the E US after an SSWE, I’m hoping for cold domination to start in the E US around Dec 15th. Until then, I expect mild to dominate.
11/17 GEFS extended:
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Is that coming from the SSW?It’s happening!
I guess it’s a combo of the PV split/warming and the movement of MJO into phases 7,8, and 1. Cold should start up here thanksgiving weekend and progress to the SE as we head into mid December
CFS & the CMC ensemble & GFS ensemble all showing that same fantasy storm right now for beginning of December for VA/NC and northward -- and right now it means next to nothing but if it is still showing up in a week
Like this??CFS & the CMC ensemble & GFS ensemble all showing that same fantasy storm right now for beginning of December for VA/NC and northward -- and right now it means next to nothing but if it is still showing up in a week
I'd expect the effects from that to lag by a few weeks.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS is probably overcooking this MJO event a bit as it tends to do in the west pacific, but these kind of zonal wind anomalies over the Pacific coupled with the collapsing -IOD and reversal of Indonesian Throughflow probably spell the end for La Niña.
Lol 
#winning
#winning
Agree, I like it as an upper outlier. It's probably too amplified, but the good news is that the really weak MJO models probably aren't amplified enough
The amplitude just screams an 8/1 crawl for a few weeks right as we approach the winter solstice. Bring it!
Downward trend shown here on the last 5 runs of the Euro Weeklies 10mb zonal winds
I don't have the raw data, but put these together just by visually capturing a close estimate of the data points - the life of a winter weather nut and all
I don't have the raw data, but put these together just by visually capturing a close estimate of the data points - the life of a winter weather nut and all
We are going to rage deep into the night this Winter.
It's when the polar vortex is weaker, such as is forecast for late November or December, that blocking patterns may eventually set up over the higher latitudes that influence the persistence of cold air masses.
Decemberrrrrr: Despite this overall scenario, the forecast ahead for December may be tricky.
"This looks to be a prolonged event and I expect the weather models to struggle correctly simulating how it evolves and how it will impact our weather," Judah Cohen, MIT research scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research told weather.com.
Cohen said this polar vortex weakening could increase the risk of severe winter weather over a prolonged period.
"The key for U.S. weather impacts is that the SSW event must end up altering the Pacific jet stream," University of Oklahoma associate professor Jason Furtado told weather.com in a 2019 interview, "...and that takes time."
"The U.S. usually has a delay — sometimes 2 to 4 weeks (after the polar vortex weakening) — in the effects, particularly the central and eastern U.S.," Furtado said.
weather.com
Decemberrrrrr: Despite this overall scenario, the forecast ahead for December may be tricky.
"This looks to be a prolonged event and I expect the weather models to struggle correctly simulating how it evolves and how it will impact our weather," Judah Cohen, MIT research scientist and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research told weather.com.
Cohen said this polar vortex weakening could increase the risk of severe winter weather over a prolonged period.
"The key for U.S. weather impacts is that the SSW event must end up altering the Pacific jet stream," University of Oklahoma associate professor Jason Furtado told weather.com in a 2019 interview, "...and that takes time."
"The U.S. usually has a delay — sometimes 2 to 4 weeks (after the polar vortex weakening) — in the effects, particularly the central and eastern U.S.," Furtado said.
The Polar Vortex Will Weaken. Here's What That Could Mean. | Weather.com
It's been a warm autumn, so far. But the polar vortex is forecast to change unusually early, and that could impact your weather in December. Here's why.
weather.com
Yep! Raging deep into December and still wondering when the cold is coming!
You must eat greenbean casserole.Yep! Raging deep into December and still wondering when the cold is coming!
Pacific jet trending further more equatorward/extended on the EPS/AIFS ens. This trend eventually becomes more hostile to a -PNA.
In fact Once you starting getting around HI is when a +PNA becomes heavily favored. Wouldn’t shock me if we trended to that honestly
In fact Once you starting getting around HI is when a +PNA becomes heavily favored. Wouldn’t shock me if we trended to that honestly