Ain’t no way the SE in the forecast gets more snow then NYC.
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Looking at those temperature maps, they look promising for December and January. I hope we can score before February if this forecast pans out. Below normal precipitation is one feature that comes with the territory with a weak La Nina in place.
SnowNiner
Member
Expected turn, but painful to watch. Really hope it keeps going 8-2 and doesn't stay on the right, as that seems to me the biggest driver of our colder patterns of late. Convection in the pacific, the jet alignment makes all the difference. Any red flags that would make it stay in the maritime?
I'd take that in a heartbeat if we could get it in reality. What's funny is that no matter the variable, every winter February is now the first month of spring.....always. That's the only month they're higher confidence on. lol.
Yeah so these are just saying that they expect more snow compared to normal in parts of the SE, with NYC below normal snowfall...not actual snowfall amounts.
Some people rail on BAM, but they are good forecasters from what I've seen over the past few years. Do they get a little excited? Yes, but hey, so do we in here. That's all part of it. No forecaster in the world gets it right all the time
After a tick rise in the Strat PV strength chart yesterday, there was a fall today, centered around Nov 25-26. Bottom line, we want it weaker than normal (dark red line is normal), especially in the lower strat around 100mb (not shown here as this is for the upper strat at 10mb, but in this type of setup, and with the models favoring some level of high latitude blocking going forward, the upper strat and lower strat should be somewhat similar in behavior)
Nice Euro Weekly run today of 30 day avg for Nov 20 to Dec 20
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
La Niña is living on borrowed time.
The only reason the extreme -IOD event we're currently seeing is going to collapse is because all of the warm water is about to get flushed into the tropical west pacific at depth over the next month or two in this MJO event's westerly wind burst. Another solid subsequent MJO burst over the West Pacific later in the winter would lead to rapid onset of El Nino conditions this spring.
A more rapid shift towards El Niño is probably the one wild card we could play that would have the potential to significantly alter the outcome of the latter part of this winter/February in our favor (though even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that things would shift favorably even in that scenario).
The only reason the extreme -IOD event we're currently seeing is going to collapse is because all of the warm water is about to get flushed into the tropical west pacific at depth over the next month or two in this MJO event's westerly wind burst. Another solid subsequent MJO burst over the West Pacific later in the winter would lead to rapid onset of El Nino conditions this spring.
A more rapid shift towards El Niño is probably the one wild card we could play that would have the potential to significantly alter the outcome of the latter part of this winter/February in our favor (though even then it wouldn't be a guarantee that things would shift favorably even in that scenario).
Things seem to be moving along nicely so far. Here is the Euro Wk MJO. 1st image is MJO forecast from Oct 16. 2nd image is MJO forecast from Nov 5. Green dots are ensemble members for Day 20 of the forecast. End of black line is 30 day forecast (I believe, as it says Monthly forecast and that seems to make sense) - so early Dec in Phase 7
Also, on the VP maps from today's weeklies, we can see the -VP signal in green (upper divergence / uplift / enhanced convection) in the E Maritime Continent (Phase 5) for Nov 5-12 avg....with that signal out of the MC and uplift over S America in the 2nd image for Dec 14-21 (Phase 8-1 type look). Sure, the Weeklies can leave us standing at the altar, but they seem to follow the general idea of MJO expectations from what I've seen and gathered.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The negative NAO in late November into December is pretty key & favorable to communicating this upper-level footprint of the MJO into the Western Hemisphere
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I reviewed the paper you shared on this earlier and it appears to state the exact opposite. It clearly states that a negative NAO often lags an eventual MJO in P3 and a positive NAO lags an eventual NAO in P7.
Observed 21–30-day lagged occurrence frequency of MJO phases following positive and negative NAO in extended winters of 1981–2017. The remaining panels show the probability of occurrence of MJO phases in the forecast period of 21–30 days initialized with positive and negative NAO for individual S2S models. The vertical bars represent the 95% level of confidence from a 10 000 bootstrap resampling calculation.
They theorized this relationship could be due to the following, but it doesn't sound like a definitive explanation:
Not trying to be argumentative, but I am curious how you come to the seemingly definitive conclusion that a negative NAO makes a phase 8-1 MJO subsequently more likely to occur when the paper you cited appears to state the opposite?