A front loaded winter is better than no winter which is normally what we have.
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
MRKEVIN7575
Member
If the ---IOD is not good for cold weather in winter then we should hope and pray it rises as winter draws closer
The -IOD actually encourages the early/front loaded theme as well
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Inspired by the study @griteater shared with us a few days ago, I replicated their QBO/Solar analysis on subseasonal variability of the polar vortex, but used a lot more data, looked only at cool neutral and La Niña winters, and utilized NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis SLP to analyze surface variability in the polar vortex.
In order to increase the sample size of the data I had to play with, I also used this pre-1953 QBO reconstruction from Bronnimann et al (2007) to analyze early 20th century QBO behavior.
Breaking down things by month revealed some very interesting behavior. I highlighted this year's current solar/QBO combo (High solar/East QBO) for reference (Warm colors = High SLP, Cold Colors = Low SLP). There's of course a lot of variability still within each sub-composite, but it was neat to see what this looked like anyway.
High Solar/East QBO/-ENSO winters like this one historically tend to have a weaker polar vortex & -NAO in December and January, and usually see a rather sudden & dramatic flip of the AO/NAO to positive (or even strongly positive) during February, with the positive AO/NAO lasting into at least March.
One thing you can honestly say about High Solar/East QBO winters like this year compared to other cool ENSO cases is that outside of January, they tend to follow the typical La Niña paradigm (far right column) more than most. (i.e. a front-loaded winter).
In order to increase the sample size of the data I had to play with, I also used this pre-1953 QBO reconstruction from Bronnimann et al (2007) to analyze early 20th century QBO behavior.
Breaking down things by month revealed some very interesting behavior. I highlighted this year's current solar/QBO combo (High solar/East QBO) for reference (Warm colors = High SLP, Cold Colors = Low SLP). There's of course a lot of variability still within each sub-composite, but it was neat to see what this looked like anyway.
High Solar/East QBO/-ENSO winters like this one historically tend to have a weaker polar vortex & -NAO in December and January, and usually see a rather sudden & dramatic flip of the AO/NAO to positive (or even strongly positive) during February, with the positive AO/NAO lasting into at least March.
One thing you can honestly say about High Solar/East QBO winters like this year compared to other cool ENSO cases is that outside of January, they tend to follow the typical La Niña paradigm (far right column) more than most. (i.e. a front-loaded winter).
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It is worth mentioning that this year currently has 2 prominent precursors in place to the development of -EPO/+TNH (or the Asia-Bering sea-N America (ABNA) teleconnection) later this winter as identified by Zhong & Wu (2023).
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & tropical West Pacific, as well as an Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
I think it'll be hard to avoid not getting strong, sustained bursts of -EPO/+TNH this winter, despite the easterly QBO favoring a more suppressed Aleutian ridge in the means. I suspect this -EPO/+TNH or ABNA pattern will actually only grow stronger as the winter progresses due to wave reflection from an increasingly strong polar vortex, which is also suggested by my previous post on the QBO & Solar.
Here's what the "ABNA" pattern typically looks like in winter. It's basically a combination of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) & Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) patterns.
Namely, a warmer-than-normal Maritime Continent & tropical West Pacific, as well as an Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole.
I think it'll be hard to avoid not getting strong, sustained bursts of -EPO/+TNH this winter, despite the easterly QBO favoring a more suppressed Aleutian ridge in the means. I suspect this -EPO/+TNH or ABNA pattern will actually only grow stronger as the winter progresses due to wave reflection from an increasingly strong polar vortex, which is also suggested by my previous post on the QBO & Solar.
Here's what the "ABNA" pattern typically looks like in winter. It's basically a combination of the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) & Tropical Northern Hemisphere (TNH) patterns.