Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

[Drizzle Snizzle]

The image below is how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US like was the case for Jan of 2025, it was suggesting that a mild SE half of the US was a much better possibility. This is when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec:
View attachment 179308

How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th of 2021 that a cold and snowy Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming. The point is that sometimes the extended models don’t have a clue.

I guess the snow and cold skipped Atlanta because Atlanta had normal temps and only 1/2” of snow in January 2022.

 

[Webberweather53]

I could see the Aleutian ridge finally getting dislodged eastward and/or poleward in mid January or so.

We just need another injection of westerly momentum to give things a kick. A fast-moving mjo could get the job done to shift the pacific jet equatorward and extend it.

 

[Webberweather53]

I could see the Aleutian ridge finally getting dislodged eastward and/or poleward in mid January or so.

We just need another injection of westerly momentum to give things a kick. A fast-moving mjo could get the job done to shift the pacific jet equatorward and extend it.

We need an uptick in west pac convection to help us break this tropical +AAMa vs -EAMT stalemate that’s locked the Aleutian ridge in place, and we are almost certainly not getting help from the EAMT

 

[Webberweather53]

We also need to keep pushing the warm pool east as much as we can unless you all want to also torch in February like we normally do in La Niña

Because thus far, we still have not gotten off the La Nina script in a low frequency sense

 

[Webberweather53]

We also need to keep pushing the warm pool east as much as we can unless you all want to also torch in February like we normally do in La Niña

Because thus far, we still have not gotten off the La Nina script in a low frequency sense

This will certainly help to some degree

 

[GaWx]

I guess the snow and cold skipped Atlanta because Atlanta had normal temps and only 1/2” of snow in January 2022.

Yes, ATL was NN. That’s why I mentioned GSO. Like GSO, GSP also had 4 BN during 1/8-21 (dates for that weeks 3-4 outlook) along with 6.5” of snow. This is why I said that one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th of 2021 that a cold and snowy Jan of 2022 in much of the E US (though not very cold like 2025) was incoming. Baltimore was similar, etc.