Drizzle Snizzle
Member
I guess the snow and cold skipped Atlanta because Atlanta had normal temps and only 1/2” of snow in January 2022.
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I could see the Aleutian ridge finally getting dislodged eastward and/or poleward in mid January or so.
We just need another injection of westerly momentum to give things a kick. A fast-moving mjo could get the job done to shift the pacific jet equatorward and extend it.
We just need another injection of westerly momentum to give things a kick. A fast-moving mjo could get the job done to shift the pacific jet equatorward and extend it.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We need an uptick in west pac convection to help us break this tropical +AAMa vs -EAMT stalemate that’s locked the Aleutian ridge in place, and we are almost certainly not getting help from the EAMT
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We also need to keep pushing the warm pool east as much as we can unless you all want to also torch in February like we normally do in La Niña
Because thus far, we still have not gotten off the La Nina script in a low frequency sense
Because thus far, we still have not gotten off the La Nina script in a low frequency sense
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, ATL was NN. That’s why I mentioned GSO. Like GSO, GSP also had 4 BN during 1/8-21 (dates for that weeks 3-4 outlook) along with 6.5” of snow. This is why I said that one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th of 2021 that a cold and snowy Jan of 2022 in much of the E US (though not very cold like 2025) was incoming. Baltimore was similar, etc.
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Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar to the prior ones through Jan 11th with mild for much of the country though the warmest is closer to the C US, well away from the E US.
However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend. And week 6 is mainly NN in the E US.
In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US as a +PNA tries to develop. So, there’s nothing remotely warm in the means in the SE for mid to late Jan. And this of course opens the door to even colder than NN as we get there, which is more in line with my thinking at this point.
+PNA trying to form for the week 1/19-25
However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend. And week 6 is mainly NN in the E US.
In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US as a +PNA tries to develop. So, there’s nothing remotely warm in the means in the SE for mid to late Jan. And this of course opens the door to even colder than NN as we get there, which is more in line with my thinking at this point.
+PNA trying to form for the week 1/19-25
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tennessee storm
Member
Sure that will get pushed back even further as time Rolls closer. Hate be that guy
Could also accelerate towards the New Year's time frame, too.
Thanks for these brother.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The sooner we completely abandon La Nina, the better off we’re going to be late winter/after MLK Day.
Some hints of the upper level footprint from La Nina just completely collapsing on the weeklies near the end of January into February
Some hints of the upper level footprint from La Nina just completely collapsing on the weeklies near the end of January into February
I know you know your stuff, but I’ll never believe it can snow in February again until I see it with my own two eyes. Therefore if we are punting most of Jan then it’s over in my eyes.
Couldn't have said it better myself Stevo! Been over a decade since a decent widespread Feb snow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A lot of this is internally driven/random to a certain degree. We will regress back to the mean at some pt
MRKEVIN7575
Member
This may have been posted already but interesting nonetheless 
tennessee storm
Member
So much for a front loaded winter guess . Lol
NBAcentel
Member
It was front loaded with cold, so technically it was, just not much in result for it, cold is gonna be back in your backyard mid-late Jan though sadly
Brent
Member
Technically it was here haha
trackersacker
Member
Random I realize, but was looking over the winter of 96 for here in Northeast Tennessee and typed in February.
February of 1996 was absolutely insane.
14” of snow that month mainly from one storm early in the month, followed by a low of -15, followed by a record high of 79° later in the month.
February of 1996 was absolutely insane.
14” of snow that month mainly from one storm early in the month, followed by a low of -15, followed by a record high of 79° later in the month.
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Brent
Member
Lol it was crazy here too. Earliest 90 on record after -11
I was still in Alabama then but I think that's the year we were so cold the lakes were icy and I remember running out of snow days at school lol. I can still recall them talking about us going on Saturday at one point(I believe some days were lost due to Hurricane Opal before the winter which was a disaster inland). I mean we were almost 200 miles inland and had 90 mph winds probably
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tennessee storm
Member
We shall see . Thinking be late January pattern can prodiceIt was front loaded with cold, so technically it was, just not much in result for it, cold is gonna be back in your backyard mid-late Jan though sadly
Brent
Member
Lol my parents from Alabama are coming out here then.... And I know they want to see snow because I didn't force January to be the trip lol. Risky
If that doesnt help us I give up haha
Looking at strong -WPO Decembers since 1950 for a -ENSO (that’s in Dec and continues through JF per RONI):
I count 10 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO winters. Here’s how the subsequent WPO ended up for JF averaged out:
2013-14: -WPO
2010-11: -WPO
2005-6: +WPO
1995-6: -WPO
1983-4: neutral WPO
1964-5: neutral WPO
1962-3: -WPO
1961-2: -WPO
1956-7: -WPO
1955-6: -WPO
So, the tally for the JF avg is 7 -WPO, 2 neutral WPO, and 1 +WPO. So, these 10 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO decently favored -WPO for the average of JF fwiw. Both are favored to be -WPO but Jan is the most strongly favored for that.
Out of these 10, 7 Jans had BN temps in the SE. The ones that didn’t were 1965 (NN), 2006 (AN), and 1957 (AN). But Feb leaned AN, which isn’t surprising with -ENSO.
I count 10 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO winters. Here’s how the subsequent WPO ended up for JF averaged out:
2013-14: -WPO
2010-11: -WPO
2005-6: +WPO
1995-6: -WPO
1983-4: neutral WPO
1964-5: neutral WPO
1962-3: -WPO
1961-2: -WPO
1956-7: -WPO
1955-6: -WPO
So, the tally for the JF avg is 7 -WPO, 2 neutral WPO, and 1 +WPO. So, these 10 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO decently favored -WPO for the average of JF fwiw. Both are favored to be -WPO but Jan is the most strongly favored for that.
Out of these 10, 7 Jans had BN temps in the SE. The ones that didn’t were 1965 (NN), 2006 (AN), and 1957 (AN). But Feb leaned AN, which isn’t surprising with -ENSO.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Note that all of those years were immediately followed by El Niño.
I see that those three non-cold Jans preceded El Niño. But the 2014 and 1963 cold ones also preceded El Niño as you know.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What did you define as a "strong" negative WPO
An average of <~-75 based on the individual days WPOs averaged out. I get the days from here:
The ones < ~-75 comprise the strongest 10 Dec -WPOs.
This good?
tennessee storm
Member
Not really
Brent
Member
Nope not enough snow here try again haha
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It would be nice if this year decided to go off the La Nina script at some point later on this winter, because people will not like the result in February if we don’t
Ever since October, we have deviated very little in general from it
October
November
December
January. We will probably have more troughing than the weeklies show in January
February last 30 years Nina composite
Ever since October, we have deviated very little in general from it
October
November
December
January. We will probably have more troughing than the weeklies show in January
February last 30 years Nina composite
We’ve been discussing that the models have been too warm in the E US in week 2 quite often since Thanksgiving week. Well, here are some maps clearly showing that for all 3 major ensembles that has been the case averaged out over the last 90 days even more than I realized: this is crazy, especially when one realizes this goes back to Oct and even late Sept, when misses are typically smaller due to typically lower variance. So, this implies that if there were a 30 day map that the misses might be even larger.
EPS last 90 days: 2.5-4F too warm SE:
GEFS last 90 days: 2-4.5F too warm SE:
GEPS last 90 days: 1.5-2F too warm SE: This is more significant than it sounds because the CMC is cold biased/coldest model on avg. That’s why it hasn’t been as far off. So, if even the cold biased GEPS has been too warm, that’s saying a lot!
@Webberweather53
EPS last 90 days: 2.5-4F too warm SE:
GEFS last 90 days: 2-4.5F too warm SE:
GEPS last 90 days: 1.5-2F too warm SE: This is more significant than it sounds because the CMC is cold biased/coldest model on avg. That’s why it hasn’t been as far off. So, if even the cold biased GEPS has been too warm, that’s saying a lot!
@Webberweather53
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I’m bumping this 11/16/25 post.
So, following the strong -PNA of Dec of ‘25 (-1.41), Jan ‘26 as expected came in with a +PNA (+0.79). So, this now makes it 12 -ENSO -PNA Decembers in a row, which dates all of the way back to 1983-4, that transitioned to a +PNA Jan:
dsaur
Member
I wish we had another 300 years of readings to work in. I've been watching a variety of shows on history, lectures on various peoples in various lands.... and they all mention the ups and downs in avg temps over time, and the impacts on events. With more years would probably be more patterns. Like that recent clown map from Goofy. I'd love to know what the input was to get that result. What did the computers see that gave middle Ga two feet, and more toward Atlanta, and 40 inches in NC. Surely once in 500 years, maybe a thousand that happened, and I'd love to see a write up on it. But, alas, we have what we've got, but even that produces patterns. Good work. Patterns are important.
This brings up a very good point. We have such a small sampling of record weather statistics. Most of what we know about weather history is recorded records from around 1880 and on. Prior to that we often have to rely on newspaper clippings, if you can find them, personal journals that mostly get lost over time, and sometimes we just have to rely on oral history that gets passed down through generations. The fact you’ll see a computer model spit a solution like the GFS did a few days ago, leads me to believe that back in history, some time over that last several hundred years, a storm like that occurred.
Jan 15th-Feb 4th, 2026 goes down as one of the most historic winter periods in modern records in the SE US and won’t soon be forgotten:
Among top 10 coldest "Jan. 15 - Feb. 4" three-week periods on record for much of the East
In FL-VA, this goes down as the top 3-10 coldest in most locations accompanied by well above avg wintry precip many areas, including the deep SE.
Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies
Among top 10 coldest "Jan. 15 - Feb. 4" three-week periods on record for much of the East
In FL-VA, this goes down as the top 3-10 coldest in most locations accompanied by well above avg wintry precip many areas, including the deep SE.
Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:
- moderate to strong +PNA
- strong to very strong -AO
- moderate to very strong -EPO
- moderate to strong -WPO
- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record
- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8
- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies
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dsaur
Member
They are collating ships logs from all around the world, that give conditions over time, and that will be a wonderful source of data. They were asking that people donate time on their computer to the project.
- Old Weather Project: Volunteers and scientists transcribe historical U.S. Navy and Royal Navy logbooks, particularly from the 19th and early 20th centuries, to fill in gaps in historical weather records, especially in remote areas like the Arctic.
- Whaling Logs & Climate Science: Researchers analyze 19th-century American whaling logs, which provide unique, consistent data from remote ocean areas often not covered by trade vessels. These logs help scientists understand changes in high-pressure systems and wind patterns (e.g., the "Roaring 40s" turning into "Furious 50s" in the Southern Ocean).
- Digitization Efforts: Projects in the UK and US have imaged thousands of Royal Navy logs (1750–1850) and WWII-era US Navy logs to create digital datasets, such as the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS).
- Data Types Extracted: Key data extracted include wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, air/water temperature, and sea ice conditions, which are often recorded in four-hour watch blocks.
