I believe it might be. He’s in my FB from time to time. Very hype driven, I believe, but the maps are legit
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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
and of course somehow Florida manages to be the only place that is above normal. That has a southeast ridge look to it. Wouldn’t surprise me if the warmth extended into Georgia with cold air further west deep into Texas. Similar to February 2021.
Hey Kevin,
This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.
So for Jan, here’s a repost of that 18Z of 11/1 CFS control run:
Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.
To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!
Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:
Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!
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Feel like recent ninos have had to much jet extension issues so even a moderate Nino feels like a super, can can never establish a true bridge to Arctic air into the NA during any ninos recently and we get setups that are barely to warm to snow, meanwhile a Nina almost always results in a ridge around Alaska/the Aleutians and brings cold nearby at least, it’s more so we fight the jet being to retracted especially later in winter
Latest weeklies is nice. Nice suppressed look in early dec 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This year trying to do its best 2010 impression
SnowNiner
Member
I thought I read somewhere that weak Nina’s were actually better historically for snow averages for CLT than ninos on average. Maybe that the reason why, ninos just have too much jet although the storm track is further south.
Today’s Euro Weeklies has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+:
