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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

MRKEVIN7575 said:
Is that from snowbird bob?
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Hey Kevin,
This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.

So for Jan, here’s a repost of that 18Z of 11/1 CFS control run:
IMG_5102.png

Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.

To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!

Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:
IMG_5101.png

Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!
 
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Feel like recent ninos have had to much jet extension issues so even a moderate Nino feels like a super, can can never establish a true bridge to Arctic air into the NA during any ninos recently and we get setups that are barely to warm to snow, meanwhile a Nina almost always results in a ridge around Alaska/the Aleutians and brings cold nearby at least, it’s more so we fight the jet being to retracted especially later in winter
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feel like recent ninos have had to much jet extension issues so even a moderate Nino feels like a super, can can never establish a true bridge to Arctic air into the NA during any ninos recently and we get setups that are barely to warm to snow, meanwhile a Nina almost always results in a ridge around Alaska/the Aleutians and brings cold nearby at least, it’s more so we fight the jet being to retracted especially later in winter
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I thought I read somewhere that weak Nina’s were actually better historically for snow averages for CLT than ninos on average. Maybe that the reason why, ninos just have too much jet although the storm track is further south.
 
just leaving this here, for chits & giggles..573393980_1408399750648769_5984479665565385519_n.jpg
 

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SnowNiner said:
I thought I read somewhere that weak Nina’s were actually better historically for snow averages for CLT than ninos on average. Maybe that the reason why, ninos just have too much jet although the storm track is further south.
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Now that I think about it I believe our biggest snowstorm ever in February 2011 and February 2021 were both in La Nina 🤣

I know the last real El Nino I remember we got flooded with Pacific air all winter and it sucked. That was one of the winters with a snow hole here since 21 and all we managed was like an inch the whole winter which is sad for here
 
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Brent said:
Now that I think about it I believe our biggest snowstorm ever in February 2011 and February 2021 were both in La Nina 🤣

I know the last real El Nino I remember we got flooded with Pacific air all winter and it sucked. That was one of the winters with a snow hole here since 21 and all we managed was like an inch the whole winter which is sad for here
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Yeah u r correct Brent … last few El Niño events we had have really sucked …. Take chance with a weak Nina for sure
 
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