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Misc Winter 22-23 Whamby and Banter Thread Part 2

rburrel2 said:
Anybody outside of the mountains won't know until go time.
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I don't understand why its so difficult to forecast 48-72 hours in advance. In this day and age we should know with almost 100% certainty what will happen in that time range.
 
rburrel2 said:
Anybody outside of the mountains won't know until go time.
Click to expand...
These types of systems will make some peoples winters and break others hearts. So many variables at play with an ULL and this one is more marginal than most we’ve seen in the past. It all depends on where the band of heaviest precip sets up. Even the short range models won’t give us an answer we can feel confident with. This is a nowcasting and radar watching event for those outside the mountains, as long as the low takes a favorable track like the GFS is showing. Trying to temper my hopes but still looking forward to see how it all plays out.
 
Snowlover87 said:
I don't understand why its so difficult to forecast 48-72 hours in advance. In this day and age we should know with almost 100% certainty what will happen in that time range.
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It's an upper level low.

They will never be forecast well. 24 hours out is too generous for them imo. More like 6-12 max.
 
31 pages on the event thread and we are 3-4 days away - crazy. I hope someone outside the mountains scores
 
Isn't it a little early to be tracking rogue ULL? I thought this was more a last gasp early-Spring activity before we fire up the mowers.
 
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