• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Winter 2021-2022 predictions

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
2,465
Reaction score
6,051
Location
Durham, NC
The good news is in La Nina winters, the differences between haves and have nots is smaller (usually), nature usually spreads the wealth much more evenly east of the mountains. Plus, we’re more likely to get high latitude pacific blocking/-EPO/-WPO in a Nina to drive air from Siberia into N America. I feel like we honestly need that to get a good storm nowadays, -NAO on its own doesn’t deliver cold enough air consistently as last year showed. I had so much cold rain :(

I’ll be back in NC for the holidays. Gonna root for either warm enough weather to go golfing or a snowstorm 🙏
The best way to spread the wealth equally is for us all to get skunked! 🦨
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
14,276
Reaction score
45,537
Location
Desert Southwest 🌵
I know it could be too much to ask but what about 4 inches? This is the standard for your classic winter storm in NC (I know for Eastern portions it’s like 3) I’m sure more get in on the luck there

This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

Most Recent 4%22+ Snowstorm NC Snow Map.jpg
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
4,638
Reaction score
6,897
Location
Apex, NC
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

View attachment 93356
Wow great stuff. What I think is most interesting is the lower the snow amount per event the more expansive the area that has received and also more recent the event seems to arise. This helps keep the weenie snow mentality at least a little intact with an almost assurance that lower snow events but still winter storm criteria have more chance of occurring for a wider portion of area per year. Also the more you increase it’s almost like it breaks down the climo of the region as you go towards the coast the events become more scattered and farther away as you shouldn’t expect to see bigger snows on the beach vs gradually as you head towards the mountains it’s the opposite as CAD and elevation help the chances of those types of snows occurring at every level.. very interesting way to plot things in my opinion.
 

metwannabe

Meanager and I don't care
Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
15,018
Reaction score
31,784
Location
Just south of Roanoke Rapids, NC
This is a 4"+ map, broken down by winter. From the Triangle - Charlotte & pts NW at least one 4"+ event has occurred in the past few years. Into the south-central coastal plain and south-southeast side of the Charlotte metro, you have to go back to 2013-14. Right along the coast in Brunswick county south of Wilmington, they haven't seen a 4"+ event since 1989.

View attachment 93356
Man I'm due a 4" plus snow
 

BIG FROSTY

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
611
Reaction score
1,810
Location
Siloam, NC/ N.Foothills WMWK
Big Winter on the way! lol
The Notorious DT..................

WxRisk Up All Night

@WxriskUpAllNite

·
7h

**ALERT !** GFS & new ECMWF weeklies develop EXTREMELY active cold early Winter pattern for easten US for Nov into DEC.; + PNA/ -EPO/ -AO/ -NAO (West coast ridge into the Arctic region strong Blocking in Arctic/ Greenland). WOOF #wxtwitter #winteriscoming #WINTER


Image


Image


Image








WxRisk Up All Night

@WxriskUpAllNite

·
7h

wait there is more.!!. the 10d CFS mean 500 b anomalies for DEC JAN FEB have Fllpped. For the past 30 days they have showed -AO/- NAO in DEC but Neutral or Positive AO/ NAO in JAN FEB. Today they flipped; keeps strong -AO/ -NAO into late FEB


Image
 

Poimen

Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2019
Messages
1,739
Reaction score
5,131
Location
Kernersville, N.C.
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
 

Thor

Supporter
Member
Joined
Nov 12, 2018
Messages
548
Reaction score
1,262
Location
Clayton, NC
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.

I tend to go to Breckenridge for these types of trips. Not sure budget is a concern but they average about 360" of snow a year. Estes park is nice too if you want to get away from ski resorts but it's in a valley and the big snows will be up in RMNP around it.
 

Webberweather53

Meteorologist
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
14,276
Reaction score
45,537
Location
Desert Southwest 🌵
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.

If it was an El Niño winter id suggest Flagstaff, AZ. They see 85” per year and tons of sunshine to go with it
 

Tarheelwx

Member
Joined
Dec 29, 2016
Messages
95
Reaction score
138
Location
Colfax, NC
Don't drink the Breck cool aid. Compared to Vail, Winter Park, Steamboat, and Telluride, Breck gets much less snow. GoBreck.com has spent big money to get that 366" avg - maybe under their snowmaking guns. Sure they get 200"+ per year, but someone's cooking the books with the 366" so that they don't lose business to other resorts. I've taken quite a few trips to both places, and Breck, while nice, is easily drier than the others. More accurately, Steamboat gets 368" while Breckenridge gets 282". Below is a link to maybe give you some better guidance. Keep in mind that in almost every case, the higher you go in the general area, the more snow you will get. Base areas will be quite a bit less. If you want nightlife along with the snow, Breck may be a decent choice. If you want lots of dry powder and a more western feel, go Steamboat hands down.

https://www.zrankings.com/ski-resorts/snow

Good luck and have fun. You might throw Telluride in the mix as well.

TW
 

Lickwx

Catchin Bass and Grabbin Ass
Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2019
Messages
7,453
Reaction score
13,082
Location
Lizard Lick, NC
Don't drink the Breck cool aid. Compared to Vail, Winter Park, Steamboat, and Telluride, Breck gets much less snow. GoBreck.com has spent big money to get that 366" avg - maybe under their snowmaking guns. Sure they get 200"+ per year, but someone's cooking the books with the 366" so that they don't lose business to other resorts. I've taken quite a few trips to both places, and Breck, while nice, is easily drier than the others. More accurately, Steamboat gets 368" while Breckenridge gets 282". Below is a link to maybe give you some better guidance. Keep in mind that in almost every case, the higher you go in the general area, the more snow you will get. Base areas will be quite a bit less. If you want nightlife along with the snow, Breck may be a decent choice. If you want lots of dry powder and a more western feel, go Steamboat hands down.

https://www.zrankings.com/ski-resorts/snow

Good luck and have fun. You might throw Telluride in the mix as well.

TW
282 inches of snow is an absolute ton and I doubt you would even notice the difference lol. Guaranteed to be buried under snow .
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
4,638
Reaction score
6,897
Location
Apex, NC
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Can’t beat a location with large amounts of lake effect snow … any one of them you’re bound to have event after event and maybe sometimes it’ll feel like the snow will never end
 

Avalanche

Member
Joined
Jan 1, 2018
Messages
2,565
Reaction score
3,424
Location
Chapel Hill
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Mt Washington in Vermont cashes in pretty well.
 
Joined
Feb 27, 2019
Messages
1,622
Reaction score
3,679
Location
Boiling Springs SC
I am taking a five week sabbatical this January. I am hoping to get away from here for the entire time and would like to go somewhere that will snow. If you had to decide in the next two weeks a place to do that in the lower 48, where would you choose? I am currently leaning toward the Colorado Rockies, but I really don't know what to expect there in January in a La Nina.

Another option is to take a chance much closer to home. I've considered finding a place around Boone and maybe hoping for a rogue storm or a few NW flow events.
Try the lake belts in Northern Michigan. Can't go wrong there.
 

SD

Staff member
Administrator
Joined
Jan 4, 2017
Messages
21,739
Reaction score
54,895
Location
Chalybeate Springs, NC
I have some optimism for December and January but this far out that's dangerous. I just feel like we will be fighting the same demons as the last 5 or so winters and they haven't been overly generous minus a few short runs. Really hope the uk and euro are on to something with the weak pv early that would play right into our hands before the SER starts lurking. Right now I'm thinking December +1-3 Jan -1-+1 Feb +5-7 with 1 respectable well below normal run in December or Jan of 7-14 days

May be flipping Jan/Feb not ideal
 

cd2play

Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2017
Messages
4,826
Reaction score
5,217
Location
Nashville, TN
I think your number look really good for December and January as like I said I expect to see us return to more in the way of up and down with our temperatures. To me February is the big wild card… if we keep a neutral ENSO into the winter then the STJ could stay active enough to keep the SER at bay, but if it does go into another Niña then spring is coming early
Although some of the biggest March snows have occurred in La Ninas.
 
Top