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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

BIG FROSTY said:
Joe D'Aleo on Southeast update yesterday! Hang on grasshopper.............................. :rolleyes:

When the stratosphere has its warming, the trough should anchor to the east and cold should develop.

View attachment 27944
January to March Anomalies
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What's up Big Frosty! Would that, by any chance, be the Pioneer model?
 
BIG FROSTY said:
It may be he didn't say! But the last time I seen him post the Pioneer model (which it's been a while) it DID look a lot like this for same time period! lol
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Haha, you know it's rough when they're rolling out the Pioneer and the Deep Thunder and the Brazilian (which, I don't think we've seen that one pulled so far this year?).
 
266836ef5a777169fa263e0d401a3fd9.jpg



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In this age of GW, here's something encouraging for the upcoming January: since 2000 and even just since 2010 Jan in the SE US has somehow averaged about the same as Jans 1895-1999! It is like January is on a climo island because no other month since 2000/2010 has been about the same vs pre 2000 even though November is not too far off:

1576718919057.png



1576719393930.png

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1576719501746.png

Looking at KATL, specifically, check these stats out for each month when comparing the 2010s, alone, vs 1895-2010s:

JAN: +0.6 (best and keep in mind that this 0.6 could easily be due to airport related warming)
FEB: +2.9 (3rd worst)
MAR: +2.4
APR: +2.7
MAY: +2.5
JUN: +2.4
JUL: +2.1
AUG: +2.2
SEP: +3.1 (2nd worst)
OCT: +2.7
NOV: +1.2 (2nd best)
DEC: +3.8 (worst)

So, JAN and, to a lesser extent, NOV stand out as having had the least warming. What's even more interesting is that those 2 months surround the worst month, Dec!
 

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GaWx said:
In this age of GW, here's something encouraging for the upcoming January: since 2000 and even just since 2010 Jan in the SE US has somehow averaged about the same as Jans 1895-1999! It is like January is on a climo island because no other month since 2000/2010 has been about the same vs pre 2000 even though November is not too far off:

View attachment 28520



View attachment 28524

View attachment 28525


View attachment 28526

Looking at KATL, specifically, check these stats out for each month when comparing the 2010s, alone, vs 1895-2010s:

JAN: +0.6 (best and keep in mind that this 0.6 could easily be due to airport related warming)
FEB: +2.9 (3rd worst)
MAR: +2.4
APR: +2.7
MAY: +2.5
JUN: +2.4
JUL: +2.1
AUG: +2.2
SEP: +3.1 (2nd worst)
OCT: +2.7
NOV: +1.2 (2nd best)
DEC: +3.8 (worst)

So, JAN and, to a lesser extent, NOV stand out as having had the least warming. What's even more interesting is that those 2 months surround the worst month, Dec!
Click to expand...

A climo island is certainly a great way to describe the recent interannual-interdecadal variability esp for months like Nov, Jan, & even Mar.
 
CFS with a decent example of the North American Winter Temperature Dipole for January 2020. Would result in a cold East coast and possibly stormy.

ef8cd563cef7f7fc81420f711275e678.jpg


This is a composite from NAWTD events 1980-2015
654ebaf83e912d55cfe6d8e7b956c985.jpg


We saw something similar in 2017, of course this had strong blocking but I’d assume some would materialize with this pattern.
9b89c21c0d5b680d92af7facc6750511.gif


And yes it means cold AND stormy. We had a storm that year on Dec 9, impacting the mountains the most, and foothills/piedmont.


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Jon said:
CFS with a decent example of the North American Winter Temperature Dipole for January 2020. Would result in a cold East coast and possibly stormy.

ef8cd563cef7f7fc81420f711275e678.jpg


This is a composite from NAWTD events 1980-2015
654ebaf83e912d55cfe6d8e7b956c985.jpg


We saw something similar in 2017, of course this had strong blocking but I’d assume some would materialize with this pattern.
9b89c21c0d5b680d92af7facc6750511.gif


And yes it means cold AND stormy. We had a storm that year on Dec 9, impacting the mountains the most, and foothills/piedmont.


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Click to expand...

Can't forget the southern crusher in the 8th of that year. Really good look to me.
 
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