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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

KyloG said:
Just to revisit this. EPS won this, mainly on it getting the pacific pattern more correct with the Aleutian ridge.

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As usual, the warmer EPS will verify much more closely than the GEFS for 2 meter temps. On many runs, GEFS had MB temps in the SE for 12/1-5 (as I pointed out) whereas the EPS had only a few degrees BN, which is what I called for based on going with the usually more accurate EPS.
I will continue to favor the EPS over the GEFS for SE temps for the forseeable future as there's no reason to switch.
 
Fwiw, the EPS weeklies show the next -NPO/-EPO regime showing up at the very tail end of Dec into early January.

In most cases, these mountain torque events trigger circulation anomalies that evolve over a period of about 2-3 weeks, it would make sense given the big GOA trough shows up ~Dec 10th to see a subsequent ridge there again around the beginning of January but this is obviously way out in la-la land. Hopefully, this IO standing wave will finally erode by then.


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Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the EPS weeklies show the next -NPO/-EPO regime showing up at the very tail end of Dec into early January.

In most cases, these mountain torque events trigger circulation anomalies that evolve over a period of about 2-3 weeks, it would make sense given the big GOA trough shows up ~Dec 10th to see a subsequent ridge there again around the beginning of January but this is obviously way out in la-la land. Hopefully, this IO standing wave will finally erode by then.


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Ahhh ...
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That Aleutian low is cringeworthy. Idc what it’s showing in the east. Double hate. Moderating high pressure=rain..next
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I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, or NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
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Hold on I will make a map
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, or NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
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Aleutian low = good. GOA/AK low bad, especially with +NAM.

The CFS for Jan/Feb looks pretty good for a seasonal...especially Jan
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't think we really know what we want up there, by reading these boards over the years. Aleutian Low: Bad. Aleutian Ridge: Bad. Gulf of AK Low: Bad. GOA Ridge: Bad. Zonal flow through the Aleutians and AK: Bad. Warm Blob: Bad. Cold Pool: Bad. There are apparently no atmospheric configurations of the north Pacific and no phases of ENSO, QBO, Solar, NPAC SSTs that lead to anything even remotely good for the Eastern US anymore.
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Aleutian low has always been good for SE cold prospects and don't see why that would now be different. Aleutian low teleconnects to W US ridge which teleconnects to E US trough, which typically means colder than average SE.
 
GaWx said:
Aleutian low has always been good for SE cold prospects and don't see why that would now be different. Aleutian low teleconnects to W US ridge which teleconnects to E US trough, which typically means colder than average SE.
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I agree with you...which is why I don't get all the angst around the Aleutian low. It makes me feel like we're playing a game of telephone with all of these features.
 
Rain Cold said:
I agree with you...which is why I don't get all the angst around the Aleutian low. It makes me feel like we're playing a game of telephone with all of these features.
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Honestly I just have never seen cold anoms anywhere near AK translate well down stream for us. I guess that would be my gripe with an Aleutian low
 
Rain Cold said:
I think the position of it matters as well as other things, influencing the pattern.
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I’m in agreement with you 99%.. honestly, what does work? How do we even get a favorable pattern to stick here anymore? I get it man I really do. I’ve struggled with this for the past couple of winters
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Honestly I just have never seen cold anoms anywhere near AK translate well down stream for us. I guess that would be my gripe with an Aleutian low
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Yeah, that is understandably confusing. The key is that the Aleutians extend pretty far WSW of mainland AK. I think the favorable Aleutian low is centered toward the W Aleutians, which are a whopping 1,200 miles from mainland AK. When the low is there, it is often warm over much of mainland AK, especially C and E portions.
 
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