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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
I believe the meteorological term is temperature healing.Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
Storm5
Member
Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Sweet I’m not ready to put the golf clubs up yet
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Wow, would u look at that! It's like nature knows it's almost December in a Nino winter or something.
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Isn't this a necessary evil...we have to go through this...
To get to this?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Unfortunately yes.
It would be nice though to have just one year where we don't have to deal with this crap & we ended up w/ at least one big dog in every month of the winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This year is definitely not characterized by neutral ENSO.
As far as I can tell, the tropical VP200 signal for this SON (which we should care about the most instead of SSTs, because VP200 ultimately determines the placement and intensity of the mid-latitude waves that emanate from anomalous sources of tropical convection) is nearly a carbon copy of the 21st century NINO composite.
ajr
Member
Agree - here's the direct link for anyone that's curious: http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1573380658807.pdf
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The MJO looks poised to run the table thru the warm phases (Indian Ocean - Maritime Continent) just in time for December when our low frequency base state (NINO) already favors a milder than average pattern.
Does this occurrence reduce cold outbreaks in the East with the MJO and the base milder?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the frequency and intensity of cold outbreaks would be significantly reduced in this pattern, but that doesn't mean they can't happen of course. Seeing interannual + low frequency (ENSO) + subseasonal variability all superimposing for a warm Dec definitely increases confidence in that outcome. Of the last 9 warm Decembers, this year really feels like the chips are stacked against us more than usual for a cold outcome.
Any chance this December ends up warmer than Dec 2015 when Atl was 12 degrees above normal ?
I remember studying a theory that a low frequency enso may cause the MJO to speed up a bit. It went on to state that warmer weather in the tropics (IO) would increase quite a bit.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm highly doubtful of that outcome unless we had a Super NINO to reinforce this pattern
Golf7575
Member
Eric, once the mjo goes through the "warm phases" for November into early December and emerges in the other phases possibly, what would we expect in sensible wx? Those mjo charts don't do it justice.
Golf7575
Member
That chart eric posted of mjo shows 3-6 being in the warm phases, but perhaps now this time of year they are actually the "cold" phases if im getting it right.
Those charts have (NDJ) I believe they are November-January
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Golf7575
Member
Eric, i know you can't speak for noone, but what are your thoughts on paul roundy saying a few weeks back that this low frequency state and if it persists, we should see plenty of HLB for winter?
Jon
Member
Here’s phases 2 through 4 with a positive enso and December..
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