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Wintry Winter 2019-20 Discussion

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Get use to seeing this the next 4-5 months!


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It only takes one winter event to make most people content. Obviously the more the merrier. It will be a long winter if we aren't able to get a favorable weather pattern for winter events. ?‍♂️?‍♂️☹?
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd wait for the 12Z Euro and if it is baking us, throw this in the nearest trash can immediately. There will be no blocking if the Euro is picking up on it. The cold bias still is strong with the GEFS and GFS.
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I think I would hold my ”cold bias” judgement on the American models for a bit. The blocking patterns on both the GFS and Euro are almost night and day. One of them will cave to the other soon. We’re all hoping it will be the Euro.


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GaWx said:
I know @dsaur (Tony) would defend sleet as he is the textbook sleetaholic . Also, for folks who care a lot about durability, I think 2.5" of sleet will usually stick around longer than 7.5" of snow. Furthermore, the pinging sound of sleet is awesome. Of course, driving on sleet is often more treacherous though I wouldn't be planning to drive on either one. OTOH, sleet is the least likely of the main 3 types to cause power outages. When snow changes to sleet, I don't at all get upset. I actually kind of smile.
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See my post in the gulf low thread :) I've got a sure fire plan for getting a foot of sleet. It all starts with a low like the one pouring on my outside now. The two I can remember that put down the qpf were the 73 storm, and Snow Jam, and the late 70's, and early 80's sleet storms. Usually it's a weak gulf low that's needed because the heat from the storm would over power the weakish cold air. SnoJam it came right up into a buzz saw of cold air, and 73 it hit freezing and stayed there. The 79 storm for me near Lenox started as all snow, but the waa turned to the best sledding storm of ever. 82 is was so borderline it was wet sleet, lol. A lot fell but like a spring snow it was melting as it fell. Still got inches deep, and that storm was a monster. It poured rain, like it is now, a good old fashioned pouring 3 or 4 inch gulf low...at least in my head, then about 6 it turned over to sleet. So it was a major storm, but reinforcing ne winds, from what I can recall, gave me another great sleet storm.
 
Take it for what it's worth, October temperature analogs rolled forward into November & winter offer effectively more of the same w/ the most anomalous cold over the northern Plains and Rockies & SE US ridge hanging tough.

Moral of the story: we might have to get used to this.

Hopefully, something changes in our favor sooner rather than later for the upcoming winter.

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Jamstec has spoken, and so has Webb ... think it far more than prudent to go with Webb ... and that being said ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Take it for what it's worth, October temperature analogs rolled forward into November & winter offer effectively more of the same w/ the most anomalous cold over the northern Plains and Rockies & SE US ridge hanging tough.

Moral of the story: we might have to get used to this.

Hopefully, something changes in our favor sooner rather than later for the upcoming winter.

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I think you would agree webber that HM or Anthony Masiello is good at what he does also and when he says things aren't looking good, it may be time to take pause at that point. If we need BIGTIME changes for us to be looking good for winter, then let us know and then we may be in trouble then.
 
Even if this winter is close to crappy last year we still will get snow, we had a few close calls last year. All it takes it a slight break here and there. I will go out on a lamb and say we get 3 storms this year and one major ice storm. The difference I see is that the GOM seems to look more active which only helps. Again I’m just wishing like everyone else.


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Webberweather53 said:
Take it for what it's worth, October temperature analogs rolled forward into November & winter offer effectively more of the same w/ the most anomalous cold over the northern Plains and Rockies & SE US ridge hanging tough.

Moral of the story: we might have to get used to this.

Hopefully, something changes in our favor sooner rather than later for the upcoming winter.

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EIGHT above normal Decembers in a row for us folks in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Florida, these analogs suggest this ridiculous streak continues.

When are we gonna finally break this vicious cycle?
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Webberweather53 said:
EIGHT above normal Decembers in a row for us folks in the Carolinas, Georgia, & Florida, these analogs suggest this ridiculous streak continues.

When are we gonna finally break this vicious cycle?
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Probably going to be a while. Hopefully, nobody has any high hopes of it this year. We can already see the usual modeling scenario playing out. Going to be a long winter watching pattern illusions and chasing false starts and digital snow mirages.
 
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