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Tropical TS Fred

The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
 
iGRXY said:
The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
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I would double down and say grace reaches major status at some point once it departs the big islands
 
iGRXY said:
The NHC the last several years have really screwed up on intensity forecasts. Especially when these storms get in the Gulf Stream on the east coast or in the gulf. Every year you see them increasing the intensity by 20-30 mph compared to what they had been putting out. If you’ve followed the tropics at all the last several years you can almost been you’re going to get some form of rapid intensification once these storms get into the gulf or right along the Carolina coast. Same thing with Grace. NHC shows a tropical storm in the gulf but I’m willing to put $20 down that we will see a hurricane from Grace as well.
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I can tell you from speaking to family that lives in Panama City last night, people down there had absolutely no idea that they could be dealing with anything more than a moderate to strong tropical storm today. Many folks down there are gonna be very surprised today.
 
only feasible tornado chasing would be i77 Charlotte to mount airy or i40 Statesville to Asheville. But setup is for rain wrapped tornadoes that won’t be seen and likely EF1 or weaker.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care
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It still looks ugly and ingesting dry air from the south. Also looks to be jogging a little W of due N. And does it really matter if there are 65 mph winds or 75 mph winds? It’s all semantics at this point
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care
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There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

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Buoy

NDBC - Station 42039 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42039 (28.787N 86.007W) - PENSACOLA - 115NM SSE of Pensacola, FL.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
 
It’s weakened in pressure since about midnight last night. It was 998mb around then and they have it at 1002mb now on TWC
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s weakened in pressure since about midnight last night. It was 998mb around then and they have it at 1002mb now on TWC
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TWC is way off and they must really be behind, it has not weakened, in fact last pressure officially by NHC was 993mb w/winds up to 60mph
 
Downeastnc said:
There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

View attachment 88397

Buoy

NDBC - Station 42039 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42039 (28.787N 86.007W) - PENSACOLA - 115NM SSE of Pensacola, FL.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov www.ndbc.noaa.gov
Click to expand...
Too bad we don't have a buoy NE of the center to give us a good surface reading
 
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