Jessy89
Member
3k nam 958mb that’s what cat 3 at landfall oh my. Of course I’m not buying that
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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Yeah .. looking like Fred makes a run at Hurricane before landfall .. HMON gets down to 985 I think and the HWRF
Looking the best we have seen him. What don't we have recon in there?
Henry2326
Member
GFS 00z at 984 and GFS 06z at 988......may take some folks by surprise later today.
Henry2326
Member
Downeastnc
Member
Should be interesting to see just what this system can pull off in the next 10ish or so hrs......NHC says it still isnt stacked and there are a lot of buoys near it showing gust to around 50-55 at best with sustained in the 30's. So its bark ( sat presentation) is bigger than its bite at the moment at least....still if it can keep it up there might end up being a small area right on the core with near hurricane conditions by landfall.
Recon is going in. I think this is the closest we have seen the LLC to the MLC.
Downeastnc
Member
This "buoy" will be/is close to the center and100 ft off the ground.....sustained 40 mph gusting to 50.....
www.ndbc.noaa.gov
NDBC - Station SGOF1 Recent Data
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from C-MAN station SGOF1 (29.408N 84.858W) - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL.
Yeah this is probably a situation where the winds catch up last minute .. people will be caught off guard here … I think he easily goes Hurricane soon todayThis "buoy" will be/is close to the center and100 ft off the ground.....sustained 40 mph gusting to 50.....
NDBC - Station SGOF1 Recent Data
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from C-MAN station SGOF1 (29.408N 84.858W) - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL.
Erin in 1995 strengthened rapidly from a moderate TS to a category 2 hurricane in that area over the last 6-8 hours before landfall. Now that storm had actually crossed over the peninsula and had maintained fairly good structure, but it does give a good example of what can happen if the conditions are right. If Fred can get well stacked over the next few hours, it may have a shot
ForsythSnow
Moderator
994 extrap approaching the center. Looks a whole lot cleaner and breezier in the weakest quadrant. I'd say we find 60 mph in the nw?
Lmaooooooo so true past few years 
Will not be surprised to see hurricane warnings go up just out of precaution. Still has a good 8 hrs over water and really nothing to impede strengthening now other than land proximity. Which sometimes helps tighten up rotation
The latest tower that has gone up over the last few frames looks to be directly over the center.
Looks like the LLC is working to get closer and closer to being vertically stacked with the MLC. I think I saw a few 60k+ FL eastern side of LLC?
Looks to be around 55kt fl winds so far and I don't think they've been in the NE quadrant yet
PSA: If you hold your finger on a image, from any site, on a IOS device you can hit save to my photos. Sorry Mornings are for coffee and contemplation.
Fred getting it's act together quick now, look at the CDO expanding westward really for the first time and any shear is basically southerly which is negated by the northward movement and deep convection right over the LLC (I think). Seen a lot of these ramp up right at landfall over the last few years