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Tropical TS Fred

iGRXY said:
Fred has already turned to the NE so you should expect even more elevated rainfall totals in NE Georgia and the western and central Carolinas. 4-6” looks to be the average with 8-12” near the NC/SC border where there will be serious lift.
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I think that's just a wobble. Satellite presentation seems to still be NNW as far as I can tell
 
NWS finally on board with my 30% chance thinking yesterday…less than 1” rain north west Georgia. But I think it will cover a larger area given the east trends. Main action will be well north east of the center.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think that's just a wobble. Satellite presentation seems to still be NNW as far as I can tell
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Officially due north movement. Satellite looked a little wonky thanks to it actually getting aligned, latest recon fix puts the LLC right under deepest convection and the mid level rotation. Looks stacked, good thing it's running out of time
 
BirdManDoomW said:
30% chance imo very little rain 1-2” or less than that for north west Georgia into extreme south-western NC IF the models were to keep correcting east it wouldn’t take 50 milestone quickly bring the drop off totals.
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As of now it hasn’t reached extreme south western NC but I believe north central Georgia should see less rain now given the east trends. With that said still a lot of rain central Georgia into north eastern Georgia.
 
Euro brings 7”+ of rain for Watauga, Ashe and Wilkes. Given it doesn’t handle upslope perfectly I expect double digit totals for some. I don’t chase floods in the mtns but Blowing Rock is sitting very nice right now if anyone wants a washout.
 
Henry2326 said:
Crazy.....NHC's 4 am discussion had it at max winds of 60 mph in 12 hours.
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I think NHC doesn't give the hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) enough credit and rely on global models too much for intensity. When you see the hurricane models showing a much stronger storm, that is a hint to me that there is a good possibility that a storm could get much stronger than other models show. Granted, yes they are usually over forecasting the intensity at times but as we have seen the past few years they do pretty well.
 
I remember some posters doubting he goes hurricane strength .. there wasn’t enough time .. but we should all learn by now the tropics don’t care
 
Latest Euro rain map looks most realistic given past tropical systems and how they run up or just west of the mtns. 1”ish north Georgia and points west, then boom 8” north east Georgia into Virginia. Major rain shadow Charlotte-Iredell-Winston with only 1-2” then quickly 4-8” foothills and 6-12” mountains.
 
I’m even going to say a quick ramp up to strong CAT 1 to even a CAT 2 is possible here.. satellite presentation is absolutely stunning and almost looks like it wants to pop an eye
 
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