Tropical TS Fred

[NickyBGuarantee]

There really isnt, if you look at the buoys around this center any hurricane strength FL winds are not getting to the surface (yet)....this buoy is 16 miles from the center on the west side in the heaviest rain bands and its sustained 45 gusting to 55 as of 20 mins ago, thats a long ways from sustained 75 mph winds....recon shows the wind lagging the pressure fall which is typical.....

View attachment 88397

Buoy

NDBC - Station 42039 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42039 (28.787N 86.007W) - PENSACOLA - 115NM SSE of Pensacola, FL.

www.ndbc.noaa.gov

You’d be surprised how quick it can wrap up nearing the coast line … let’s watch and see what he does

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

67 knot wind in latest pass on the NE quadrant. Buckle up..

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah it’s definitely going to have a very good shot at hurricane strength. This thing is not weakening at all.

 

[Metwannabe]

Located in Panama City, should be a good station to look at later

Tempest

Tempest Weather System

tempestwx.com

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Can definitely see the dry air south east of it .. but it’s really trying to wrap up a core .. it’s a warzone out there right now

 

[Zander98al]

I spy a waterspout

 

[Stormsfury]

We're seeing several things happen here...
Convective tugging I talked about yesterday obviously...

But my goodness, the small area of improved light shear near the center ... Plus now, Fred is aligning more with the directional shear which further reduces relative NET shear...so we see it time and time again with some recurving systems that are axisymmetric, how some jet dynamics improve venting without a classic outflow pattern ...

24 hours ago, I would have bet Fred was 60mph tops... Classic example of needing to be over prepared and always take precautions like it will be stronger than anticipated... Just in case...

 

[Tarheel1]

You mean TWC actually still does weather? Last time I turned it on there I had to wait about 20 mins to see anything weather related.

They go all in on big events! There has been non stop coverage since last night! It’s pissing me off! I tuned in for animal storm stories! ??

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The second center pass is still 993mb.

 

[Tarheel1]

Looks like precip totals have been cut down slightly on modeling overnight. See no 5-8” pockets over NC on this morning’s forecasts

 

[deltadog03]

Dry slot looks to filling in again. Watch for the convection to rotate around to the east and then you probably will see the NNE turn start

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is something to watch

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Looks like precip totals have been cut down slightly on modeling overnight. See no 5-8” pockets over NC on this morning’s forecasts

How bout pockets of 10?

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow that’s very impressive might chase this

 

[wxdaniel]

Dang that feeder band is intense...

 

[Brent]

View attachment 88404

The power of the Gulf since Saturday night

 

[wxdaniel]

Could someone explain to me these bands here and what are they doing? Is it the genesis of the Atlantic moisture feed?

 

[Brent]

Could someone explain to me these bands here and what are they doing? Is it the genesis of the Atlantic moisture feed?

View attachment 88409

I'm not sure but it has existed in other storms

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Could someone explain to me these bands here and what are they doing? Is it the genesis of the Atlantic moisture feed?

View attachment 88409

Systems often pull moisture in from the Atlantic side with help of the Gulf Stream but in this setup it will only penetrate so far inland. NHC says a few inches for coastal South Carolina only. It will quickly stop once Fred is a little further north.