Tropical TS Elsa

[Brent]

The radar presentation has really fallen apart vs earlier wow I was working for 4 hours and it just totally collapsed

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yep the NE side has completely collapsed. It’s on life support rn

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Josh is going to be pissed if this thing doesn’t help itself out soon .. she’s pooped out completely

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

???

 

[BHS1975]

HRRR only showing 30mph gusts at landfall.


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[Brick Tamland]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This thing completely collapsed in about 45 minutes

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Seems more often than not these tropical systems get stronger right before landfall the past few years.

This aged great as well ?? the first time we’ve seen rapid weakening upon landfall

 

[lj0109]

11PM NHC Advisory:

 

[Cary_Snow95]

11PM NHC Advisory:
View attachment 86247

Little shocked by their change to keep it a tropical storm all the way to the ne. I really can’t imagine it maintaining tropical storm strength by the time it reaches NC

 

[Shaggy]

Little shocked by there change to keep it a tropical storm all the way to the ne. I really can’t imagine it maintaining tropical storm strength by the time it reaches NC

If the gradient they mention is legit then it will be breezy for sure.

Fran was a good example as the winds on her east side were quite strong and far spread due to the strong high to her east.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

NAM still wants to give Brad a run for his money

 

[Webberweather53]

Elsa's collapse this evening looks like a pretty classic case of shear-induced dry air intrusion. A weak, strongly tilted vortex like Elsa's in conjunction with very dry air and strong (20-25 kt) shear to advect that dry air into the core is usually how something like this happens.

 

[GaWx]

Great news for @pcbjr as I'm sure he's relieved though still wary of what she may still do in his area. If Phil is reading this: don't get complacent.

Now I can say that the Euro was a complete fail with its ~982 mb runs.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

HWRF certainly looks like a fun set up for us

 

[ncskywarn]

11PM NHC Advisory:
View attachment 86247

It's really interesting that the official track is East of all the model guidance.

 

[Brent]

Downgraded

...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

 

[Shaggy]

Downgraded

...ELSA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Yeah no storms could maintain over the center. Should make landfall over the eastern side of the big bend.

 

[Shaggy]

The collapse continues. Crazy how hard this storm has struggled.

 

[Shaggy]

06z Hrrr really increases the windfield albeit weak as it moves into NC and begins transitioning to ET. Winds 20-30 with some gusts seems reasonable.