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Tropical TS Elsa

One thing that people are not referencing here is the fact that the shear that's over Elsa isn't completely dehabilitating...

In fact, the diffluent flow is likely enhancing convection, and there may be some baroclinicity at play here. The EURO I THINK is picking up on this but a bit too extreme here. However, that being said... ELSA has never had any problem generating convection (she's had that going for her the whole time).

She certainly has a much larger circulation envelope than the last time I looked yesterday...but still basically a half a system storm
 
I certainly would not be surprised if she regains hurricane stength. She is certainly looking better and is trying.
 
metwannabe said:
In all seriousness, tone down the met bashing please. I know we tolerate a bunch, I mean a bunch, of off topic post on here but I also know we've asked to keep the negative met talk to a minimum. Or at least do so in the whamby thread and in such a way that isn't so negative or could be viewed as a turn off to the site. Thanks!
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I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
 
Chazwin said:
I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
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No problem and I don't have an issue with questioning his forecast, it just becomes over kill at times..... and frankly you never know who is reading the site
 
metwannabe said:
LLC seems to have disappeared under that cdo that is expanding west, Elsa is tenacious that's for sure
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A storm moving west at 30mph in the Carbbean into 10-15kts of westerly shear should have been cut in half and dead but Elsa beat it all and is looking slightly better despite all her roadblocks.
 
Chazwin said:
I do apologize. I actually really like Brad a lot. I think he and Matthew East are the two best mets in the CLT by far. I just wish he would leave some wiggle room in his statements when it comes to impacts from tropical systems… he’s been burned a few times over the last few years from statements he’s made too far out to be so certain.
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I think Brad is fantastic! Unfortunately, he has such a huge media presence and is well known not just in the QC but around the SE. And he has been burned by his forecast (especially the 2017 snowstorm) that never materialized. I mean people were literally cussing him out. Since then, I think he just plays things ultra conservative when it comes to his forecasts.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

...ELSA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHE
 
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021

The Hurricane Hunters completed their mission into Elsa a little
while ago, and observations from the aircraft indicate that the
storm's maximum winds are near 60 kt. Elsa is a sheared tropical
cyclone, with the low level center situated on the southwest edge
of the main area of deep convection. Much of the western half of
the circulation continues to lack significant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Moderate westerly vertical shear, along
with relatively dry mid-level air, should continue to affect the
cyclone until landfall within the next day or so. However
this environment should not be hostile enough to prevent some
slight strengthening, and Elsa is predicted to become a
hurricane overnight.

Elsa is moving northward, or 350/9 kt.
A continued northward
track is likely for the next 24 hours or so as the tropical
cyclone moves between the western periphery of an Atlantic
subtropical ridge and a broad low pressure area over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A turn toward the north-northeast
along the northwestern side of the ridge is expected by late
tomorrow, followed by an acceleration toward the northeast
over the next couple of days ahead of a trough over the eastern
United States and eastern Canada. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous ones and near or slightly to the right of
the model consensus tracks.
 
Tree crushing rain, then Oregon heat! ???3A500EF6-DDF8-484E-854F-2C2D9107D311.png
 
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