Hurricane Debby

[Stormsfury]

18z HWRF
975 at landfall
982 into south GA.....spins there through Tuesday.
In previous runs, it never makes it to the Atlantic. Meanders back to AL, like the GFS.
Watching to see what this run does.

View attachment 149399

View attachment 149400

The HWRF is run on the GFS background so not surprised it would show a similar outcome.

 

[Chazwin]

The HWRF is run on the GFS background so not surprised it would show a similar outcome.

Thanks for mentioning that. Do you know background the other hurricane models run from?

 

[Stormsfury]

Thanks for mentioning that. Do you know background the other hurricane models run from?

I don't know, I think HMON might also run on the GFS background but I could be way off.

 

[Chazwin]

I don't know, I think HMON might also run on the GFS background but I could be way off.

Looking at the 18z HMON, it exits the coast around Hilton Head, spins and drifts around offshore for 48 hours and then comes due west landfalling near CHS.

 

[Chrisgo]

 

[Henry2326]

18z HWRF
975 at landfall
982 into south GA.....spins there through Tuesday.
In previous runs, it never makes it to the Atlantic. Meanders back to AL, like the GFS.
Watching to see what this run does.

View attachment 149399

View attachment 149400

It never makes it to the Atlantic. It spins in GA through Wednesday and then heads back to the gulf.

 

[lexxnchloe]

No change on Euro

 

[ChrisAMB]

I mean the NHC 5-day cone in theory could have the center of circulation around Vidalia, GA on Friday. Seems like it'll be one of those weird ones.

 

[Downeastnc]

Why would they have two recon flights going at the same time, why not stagger them? Anyways pressure looks to be down to 987.

 

[accu35]

HWRF has Debbie hitting BB then merge back west into the gulf as a 992/993 storm at Mobile Bay

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HWRF has Debbie hitting BB then merge back west into the gulf as a 992/993 storm at Mobile Bay

HAS BEEN SHOWING THAT FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS

 

[Stevo24]

This is where the fun begins.

 

[jeremyt]

I would think a mix of the model solutions. Although the storm seems to be east of guidance which could lead to a storm over the grand strand into E NC.

 

[Snow_chaser]

I would think a mix of the model solutions. Although the storm seems to be east of guidance which could lead to a storm over the grand strand into E NC.

Dr Levi Cowan posted this about an hour ago.

 

[Downeastnc]

Down a couple MB on the new fix...close to a cane now probably be 75-80 at 11...

 

[Henry2326]

00z

 

[Shaggy]

00z

View attachment 149410

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

 

[Henry2326]

I spy a little eye.....

 

[Henry2326]

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

I'll be shocked if it's not a cat 1 coming onshore to SC.

 

[Chazwin]

Looks like more clearance from land once in the antlantic before the north turn

It does, but it also looks like the plots are favoring a bit sharper of a turn back to the north and northwest. All of those plots have a 2nd landfall south of the NC/SC border