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Hurricane Debby

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Wilmington looks like it's going to get training lightning.

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Pressure went down 1 mb.

5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 7
Location: 31.9°N 79.5°W
Moving: E at 5 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


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Chazwin said:
The last couple hours, there’s definitely some thunderstorms starting to flare up close to the center. Also if you notice that band of convection on the east side of the storm, that’s a signature I’ve always seemed to notice with strengthening tropical storms
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Seems like she is gonna try but the inner core is completely gone and the center is very broad...and very dead so she has a ton of work to do. If she does flare up on the east side it may tug her further east though and move landfall up the coast which could buy her another 12 or so hrs over water.
 
Downeastnc said:
Seems like she is gonna try but the inner core is completely gone and the center is very broad...and very dead so she has a ton of work to do. If she does flare up on the east side it may tug her further east though and move landfall up the coast which could buy her another 12 or so hrs over water.
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I think you’ve lost the Cape Fear ICON solution from 48 hours ago.
 
Downeastnc said:
Seems like she is gonna try but the inner core is completely gone and the center is very broad...and very dead so she has a ton of work to do. If she does flare up on the east side it may tug her further east though and move landfall up the coast which could buy her another 12 or so hrs over water.
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It needed to sit over the gulf stream for a few days like Dennis did but its over shallow shelf water thats cooling down with the rain and clouds and breeze
 
All the HIRES guidance insist convection developing today and wrapping around the center to the western side of Debby. Somehow, Debby snuck into an area of 29°C SSTs and the areas of dry air are shrinking aloft. (She looks more subtropical than tropical, actually).

We shall see if it plays out like the HIRES guidance rolls, but they are practically all in line with each other developing a profilic band on the western side and more bands rotating around...
 
Belle Lechat said:
Pressure went down 1 mb.

5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 7
Location: 31.9°N 79.5°W
Moving: E at 5 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


032134_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...
Seems they keep slowing down the timing with it coming on shore. I thought Thursdsy was supposed to be the worst day here but now looks like it won't be here until Friday.
 
GSP has really pushed totals up to 3-6” from Spartanburg county and west. 1-4” from Anderson and Pickens to the Spartanburg county line.
 
This roughly 10; 30ish future radar

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Then by 2:30
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So well should see the western side start getting heavier dbz,blossoming in next hour or 2. If this is gonna verify
 
jeremyt said:
I’d like to know the thoughts from all those who said she was dead? Did you expect a Cat 2-3 to reemerge? It’s been forecasted pretty decently and was never gonna be anymore than a rain event up here.
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A lot of modeling kept her rain banding potent and extreme for a lot of people. Luckily that didn't happen long term. I expect people to get more rain though.
 
Shawn said:
A lot of modeling kept her rain banding potent and extreme for a lot of people. Luckily that didn't happen long term. I expect people to get more rain though.
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Onshore flow started in Ernest Sunday evening here at the coast and since that influence started I'm at 7 inches. Really the majority of that fell in 2 sets of bands with lots of down time and drizzle in between
 
The heavier banding is apparent on multiple models. We shall see. I can see it trying to get it's act together currently.icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_11.png
 
KyloG said:
I guess the coast could be 6-8" but further inland I am not so sure. RDU got 2-3" in a day a couple of weeks ago...not sure we eclipse that.

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Yeah I think the heaviest rainfall potential for areas away from the coast has shifted to the western Piedmont. A lot of the modeling overnight has centered some of the heaviest totals, 6-8”+ over the CLT metro east of I-77.
 
Shawn said:
The heavier banding is apparent on multiple models. We shall see. I can see it trying to get it's act together currently.View attachment 149621
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Yeah I mentioned last night that the models have been very consistent with that big,bright band to the north and west of the COC. If they’re right, the areas that band pivots through are going to pile up the numbers fast
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah I mentioned last night that the models have been very consistent with that big,bright band to the north and west of the COC. If they’re right, the areas that band pivots through are going to pile up the numbers fast
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Luckily it doesn't get stuck. It starts really cranking down between 2-5PM on the coast, so we don't have to wait long to see if there is truth to it.
 
GaWx said:
As the Debby center moved to the SE offshore finally putting us on the backside, steady mainly moderate rains resumed about 1.5 hours ago after little rain since late last night. I had been at ~8.5” for the storm before this. We’ll see how much gets added from this and more to come tonight.
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Further to the above’s 8.5”, I’ve gotten an additional 1.8” since ~6PM yesterday for an updated total so far of ~10.3”, easily the largest amount from a single event since Matthew of early Oct of 2016.
There’s still on and off light rain falling and it’s breezy here on the backside.
 
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