lexxnchloe
Member
18z GFS dumps 2 feet over you. Actually hits you again August 13th.Just normal bias. Me, Downeast, Shaggy look at the ICON because its far more exciting here. People in Charleston or Savannah are going to like the GFS much more. Others the Euro.
I know. Standing water and skeeters thru Sept.18z GFS dumps 2 feet over you. Actually hits you again August 13th.
Sounds so exciting, to have snake infest, alligator's, mosquitoes', possible power out for a week or more, yes, living the dream.18z GFS dumps 2 feet over you. Actually hits you again August 13th.
The only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.IF the GFS is somehow close to being right someone near that front is in for a surprise, because with that low in GA upslope moisture would come up against it for at least 2-3 days if not longer. A secondary max of 10+ could be realized somewhere near the front, probably in the upslope favored NC and SC foothills. Maybe the metros of Charlotte and GSP too.
I think Brad P is playing it safe because if somehow the GFS is even half correct here then we could get big rain. If any other global model is correct we get less than an inch. If it takes a Euro track and we get big rains anyway I will gladly own my failed predictionEven BRad P has discussed he expects much more rainfall that what's being forecasted on the NW side and a stalled front backs that up.
I guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro showsThe only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.
It’s hard to argue against leaning towards the Euro with how well it’s done on tracks the last few yearsI guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro shows
Started before Hurricane Sandy but dang it nailed it so freakishly early with that west hook it even scared me with how powerful the EURO really is.I guess what it comes down to is we know 100% there will be changes in the modeling. Right now all we can do is go on what we have at the moment. Today the General consensus is a storm basically riding up the Georgia and Carolina coast. It's clear the NHC puts more weight on the Euro than any model. Whether they admit that or not idk. But center of the cone almost always follows what the Euro shows
Exactly the spaghetti models have several members that do exactly what the GFS is showing so it’s not on an island by itself technicallyThe only reason that I’m not completely dismissing the GFS on the track is because the hurricane models all do something similar. Yes it goes against climo, but like I mentioned last night weird things happen when steering breakdown…see Florence in 2018.