Downeastnc
Member
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Hurricane Debby
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
together.
Tropical Storm Warnings issued for East Coast.
Downeastnc
Member
Right or wrong the ICON has been rock steady run to run.....
lexxnchloe
Member
Shaggy
Member
Icon is just all around bad for NC piedmont and areas east
Shaggy
Member
And also consistent with climatology
I'm about 2 mi from the ocean in Mount Pleasant across the river from Charleston. My elevation's about 16 ft. Hopefully it'll be all right! Back in 2015 Mount Pleasant didn't have much flooding surprisingly when 27 inches of rain fell.
JHS
Member
The ICON says no, and it will probably be right. It has never really changed course and climatology also favors it.
Shaggy
Member
BHS1975
Member
Personally if I had to make a call right now on a track, I would favor somewhere between the 12z Euro and the 18z ICON with a lean to the Euro simply because of how well it’s done on forecast tracks the last few years. Also I think the Icon is likely overdoing the strengthening off the SC coast which is part of the reason it goes furth north. Both models make a turn back to the NNW with the Euro doing it sooner with landfall just south Myrtle Beach and the ICON does it later leading to a landfall closer to Cape Lookout.
At some point, a decision will need to be made to issue Hurricane Warnings for the East Coast. This thing is trying to go east and will likely want to jump back over water quickly before stalling.
Downeastnc
Member
It more that its been very consistent, plus is did well with Beryl overall, called the turn into TX first...
Everyone is focused on their backyard. Your area is a lot different than mine or Shetleys area. You'll get big rain regardless. The Euro basically has nothing back this way either. A storm running the coast like this doesn't normally get the rainshield back this far. Hermine in 2016 didn't. Matthew in 2016 didn't. Seems as though there was one last year or the year before didn't. I don't pay much attention to that saying precip is always under modeled nw. It isn't with tropical systems. Climo says draw a line from Greenwood up through Union and Gastonia and anywhere west of that gets clouds and showers. Less than an inch for I85 from Atlanta to Gastonia. Brad P was talking about mainly nw NC into VA if the storm stalls and drifts nw while over NC it could interact with the front more up in that area.
lexxnchloe
Member
18z is going to be weirder than 12ZGFS
iGRXY
Member
2 Clusters centered near Beaufort, SC and McClellanville, SC. Both would be some serious flooding inland. One thing about the stalled front is it will not only make the precip shield more expansive on the NW side but will also pull the precip shield naturally more towards the western side of the storm as it tracks further inland.
iGRXY
Member
Difference is there's a stalled front in this scenario that will enforce more precip back our way. If we get the Euro's track from 12z where it is situated closer to Lumberton, NC we will get more rain than the totals it spit out.
JHS
Member
It sure is. I have no idea where this run will lead, but if this is close to being right Savannah and Charleston are in trouble rainfall wise.
We'll have to see when short range models come into range if they start picking up on more interaction with the front. The Euro isn't at the moment. As far as SE flow and upslope that would occur when the center is off the GA coast. My opinion we're too far away. Once the center gets to Lumberton , even though its closer the SE flow here is gone.