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Hurricane Debby

12Z Tropical model guidance; some models have a bit eastwards shift on landfall. Something we have to watch over the next several hours.
 

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If you add up the maximum totals from the detailed forecast page from the NWS at Raleigh for Wake County you come up with a total of 11.25 inches of rain. That seems reasonable at this point. Southern sections of the state nearer the coast are probably looking at twenty inches or more in some spots.
 
So this storm is throwing wrenches at people all up and down the eastern coast. I'm suppose to go to Ft. Lauderdale starting this Thursday (driving down from Maine with dogs) for a last minute vacation....Saw the 11am updated cones of Debby....We are waiting til Sunday now to ensure that the people in the south can get what they need without more tourists driving through.

I truly hope there is no more loss of life and minimal damage from this storm, people need a break and not more trauma right now. Ya'll are really awesome at what you do and how useful your information is, even while living in Maine!

Stay Safe!
 
gaikkeb said:
So this storm is throwing wrenches at people all up and down the eastern coast. I'm suppose to go to Ft. Lauderdale starting this Thursday (driving down from Maine with dogs) for a last minute vacation....Saw the 11am updated cones of Debby....We are waiting til Sunday now to ensure that the people in the south can get what they need without more tourists driving through.

I truly hope there is no more loss of life and minimal damage from this storm, people need a break and not more trauma right now. Ya'll are really awesome at what you do and how useful your information is, even while living in Maine!

Stay Safe!
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There is a very real possibility parts of 95 in southern NC will be shut down for some time after this so keep your eyes on that. That area does not handle this type of water well.
 
Just got hit with that first batch out in Rocky Mount on a maintenance run. WPC keeps nudging that 10-15” up inland.

Tweeted this earlier, but RDU/greenville both have their wettest past 30 days on record coming into this. Lumberton 4th, Florence SC 8th. It won’t take long for stuff to rise
 
jackendrickwx said:
Just got hit with that first batch out in Rocky Mount on a maintenance run. WPC keeps nudging that 10-15” up inland.

Tweeted this earlier, but RDU/greenville both have their wettest past 30 days on record coming into this. Lumberton 4th, Florence SC 8th. It won’t take long for stuff to rise
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Drove over the Little Pee Dee earlier and the boat ramp at Fork Retch is still under water. 15” of rain in the catchment may very well put SC9 under water at Dillon and Nichols on the Lumber River, I95 at Lumberton too. US74 will most likely have issues as well around Boardman.

US501 at Conway just barely stayed open during Matthew and Florence.
 
RDUHeatIsland said:

NC FIMAN

NC FLOOD INUNDATION MAPPING AND ALERT NETWORK (FIMAN)
fiman.nc.gov fiman.nc.gov

Useful tool for those in NC. You can see flood gauges for a lot of the smaller creeks as well.
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God bless you. Exactly what I been looking for,for 2 days. Very very helpful. Appreciate you passing along.
 
Have to wonder if the system is going to be a little susceptible to a bit of convective tugging the next 24 hours or so as it gets back over the water. If this was the gfs of the old days I would 100% say that's what's pulling it way west you can see the convective enhancement on the qpf plots and how the low follows that. I think the worst thing that can happen for much of nc is this gets far enough off shore that it can start rebuilding itself north and NE of the center. That will point a firehouse off of the Atlantic right into the state similar to the 3k and Canadian outputs
 
Not a complaint but more of a question for someone with more insight. I’m a mile from the Anson County line on the Union side. NWS area forecast has Peachland ( Anson County) with a forecast of possibly 11+ inches of rain over the duration , my zip code Marshville ( Union County) with 5-6 inches. I know at the end of the day what falls is what falls but a mile or two away is so much higher. I k ow we might get more than that but for people who don’t know and look at a website for info why would there be so a massive difference?
 
jeremyt said:
Not a complaint but more of a question for someone with more insight. I’m a mile from the Anson County line on the Union side. NWS area forecast has Peachland ( Anson County) with a forecast of possibly 11+ inches of rain over the duration , my zip code Marshville ( Union County) with 5-6 inches. I know at the end of the day what falls is what falls but a mile or two away is so much higher. I k ow we might get more than that but for people who don’t know and look at a website for info why would there be so a massive difference?
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There's going to be a sharp drop off somewhere. The NWS just has your area in that drop off (right now). But as others have said (including NWS) the eventual track will dictate amounts.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Just got hit with that first batch out in Rocky Mount on a maintenance run. WPC keeps nudging that 10-15” up inland.

Tweeted this earlier, but RDU/greenville both have their wettest past 30 days on record coming into this. Lumberton 4th, Florence SC 8th. It won’t take long for stuff to rise
Click to expand...

Hasn't updated since 8:27 AM -

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jeremyt said:
Not a complaint but more of a question for someone with more insight. I’m a mile from the Anson County line on the Union side. NWS area forecast has Peachland ( Anson County) with a forecast of possibly 11+ inches of rain over the duration , my zip code Marshville ( Union County) with 5-6 inches. I know at the end of the day what falls is what falls but a mile or two away is so much higher. I k ow we might get more than that but for people who don’t know and look at a website for info why would there be so a massive difference?
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Speaking as someone who’s lived in Union County for 15 years, I can say that the GSP office does absolutely no collaboration with the RDU office on precip amount over Union and Anson Counties. I tend to look more at the WPC’s maps and they have the 8” line cutting through the center of Union County
 
14 GFS runs in a row through the 12Z have turned back W into the coast. But the 12Z is slightly further N and the 6Z and even moreso the 12Z GEFS mean is further N than the operational. Also, fwiw being that it’s an inferior model, the 12Z JMA 72 adjusted back N with it in VA vs yesterday’s 12Z JMA 96 in E C GA.
So, as of now the GFS will likely end up wrong, which history all along strongly suggested.

12Z UKMET: landfall Georgetown ~8AM Thu 8/8 and then heads N into VA (~50 miles E of 0Z) followed by NE turn to NE US though not as strong there as 0Z had

12Z Euro: landfall just S of Georgetown ~3AM Thu followed by NNW move into WC NC and then NE move into interior NE US, a little W of UKMET
 
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I’m always impressed with how efficient the airmass with a tropical system is at adding up rain totals. I have had anything more than a light to moderate rain that started just before 10am. It’s been steady though and already .74” in the gauge.
 
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