Downeastnc
Member
I think they held up because the LLC is elongated and the storm is extremely lopsided....recon is not finding a well defined LLC, they will pull the trigger at 5 if the LLC can tighten up.......
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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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- tropics
I think they held up because the LLC is elongated and the storm is extremely lopsided....recon is not finding a well defined LLC, they will pull the trigger at 5 if the LLC can tighten up.......
if I have temps in the low 50s, wind gusts to in the 40s, that gives me a windchill of around 10 degrees! That’s how you win ! Loving the 2” plus totals showing up in the upstate!!
Fountainguy97
Member
yep. Time is running out to see it fully tropical. The ULL trough to the NW is starting to interact with the system now. By 8PM tonight the HRRR has that blob dying and the ULL stacking into a broad system.
Here you can see the blob die to the east and the storm pull up under that trough. It will probably still be tropical in nature though.
The less tropical it is the better for rain. It will be much more spread out.
Here you can see the "transition" or whatever you want to call it already well on its way. That blob's hours are numbered!
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah its a pretty unique setup. Wind is just one criteria though! NHC has it right. I could see this being problematic for the public though. Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 doesn't have the same ring to it haha.
Still hugging the 3k NAM!!
We might know here in about 1 1/2 with another update
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Its gonna be sometime this afternoon if it's going to become tropical. If not as it gets closer to land I have to think they'll name it as a subtropical storm.
accu35
Member
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Gulf Easter? Lol. You must got that off TWC, because that's what the guy on there is calling it
Why does it not have a name ? Its 60 mph and its in the tropics. Sounds like a tropical storm to me.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Needs a closed center of curculation.
If it were a tropical storm would it be more dangerous than it is now ? With it not being a tropical storm, does that make it harder for it to intensify ? I guess the general public would probably not take it as seriously if it doesnt have a name.
Brent
Member
Finally
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
My guess is this was to benefit the public because it looks less organized now than the last advisory.
Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Three Carnival cruise ships are apparently heading into the path of this storm right now, silver lining is it's not like that Lorenzo situation where a ship sank but there was enough of a chance of a tropical storm that you'd think that Carnival would've redirected their paths before today.
Let's see if the Euro holds on to it's horrible max wind gust progs.... let us know if anybody gets close to these
And rainfall totals...
Air sink anomaly doin' work!
