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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

BirdManDoomW

BirdManDoomW

WilkesboroDude
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Recon is heading out there today to check on it. I’m not totally bought on widespread rains (given it’s October they trend east) but I think better chances would be Florida maybe up to Columbia SC area. Still uncertain maybe some rain can make it up for everyone (which a front will likely bring some to all near the same time frame anyway).
 
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Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
 
12Z GEFS is WAY more active than any recent GEFS run and it is also SE of prior runs as well as faster. A much bigger deal implied for much of the deep SE US into FL. Consistent with this: mean inland rainfall much heavier than recent runs over most of FL and also up the SE coast. Check it out on Tidbits when it comes out.
 
Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
 
GaWx said:
Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. I’m surprised this has yet to be “Invested”.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38
Click to expand...
Yeah, E NC jackpots!That map looks like ----??! We toss the Ukie! It’s not good with tropical systems
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Mmm if it interacts with a front tropical rains would occur in upslope for GA to Boone NC
Click to expand...
Being on the NW side always sucks, and produces less rainfall! I’m glad it’s trending to a non-event for my area this early! .25” on a few showers! Winning!
 
Kind of what you expect...GFS furthest east/quicker, Euro slower/west and UK in the middle. Either way, looks like a fairly good rain maker for southern states (GA/AL/SC). For NC we shall see, it could always slide east quicker.

EuroGFSUK.gif
 
Funny...Euro precip holes GSP and RDU. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

9-km ECMWF USA Cities Southeast US 24-h Precipitation 114.png
 
CMC and ICON STAY ON TRACK WITH UKIE AND GFS....and might I add that they were the first....just no one ever believes them...lol


icon_mslp_wind_watl_28.png
gem_mslp_pcpn_watl_14.png
 
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