Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

[Shaggy]

This drop is just insane.
View attachment 148259

Has to be a malfunction right?

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

We've got a plane heading for the eye.

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Belle Lechat]

EDIT: Replacing bad info.

Also, flhurricane.com hasn't loaded in 20 minutes.

 

[Brent]

Still strengthening wow. It better stop soon for the intensity forecasts to verify

 

[Belle Lechat]

Cancel that. I don't know what the orange 922 by the eye is, but it's not a pressure. It's not in the raw data. I'll put a picture where my misleading sentence was.

 

[Belle Lechat]

8:00 AM AST Tue Jul 2
Moving: WNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph

 

[Arcc]

If I were a betting man I’d bet it dances around Jamaica.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Shaggy]

Seems they discounted the SFMR data in the 150kt+ range from the earlier drops

 

[Belle Lechat]

If the hurricane-force winds stay their course, the eye may go over Haiti.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Brent]

If I were a betting man I’d bet it dances around Jamaica.

Ivan did that in 2004

 

[GaWx]

The NHC is forecasting for Jamaica as much as 5-8 feet surge “in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast”. That was raised from 4-6 ft in the prior advisory. They are forecasting highest winds of 140 mph while approaching from ESE of Jamaica and then weakening to 120 mph when it is nearest to W Jamaica. So, it is saying solid cat 3 hit on Jamaica.

These 6 MH since 1903 had analogous WNW tracks on approach to Jamaica and thus should give a good hint of what will likely occur since these moved either just S of or right over Jamaica:

1) MHs that moved WNW just S of Jamaica:

Dean (2007)

Ivan (2004)



2) MHs that moved WNW right over Jamaica:

Gilbert (1988)

Charlie (1951)

Storm #4 (1944)

Storm #2 (1903)

 

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: useful for track (not for strength):
Compared to 12Z: 1) a touch S of 0Z run at Jamaica
2) 75 miles further S at Yucatan but still N of Belize border
3) much further S back to near Tampico like yesterdays runs vs today’s 0Z into TX

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2024

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 67.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2024 0 15.0N 67.6W 951 110
0000UTC 03.07.2024 12 16.1N 71.7W 979 81
1200UTC 03.07.2024 24 16.9N 75.4W 990 63
0000UTC 04.07.2024 36 17.8N 79.0W 995 54
1200UTC 04.07.2024 48 18.4N 82.8W 999 45
0000UTC 05.07.2024 60 18.6N 86.2W 999 43
1200UTC 05.07.2024 72 19.3N 88.5W 1003 33
0000UTC 06.07.2024 84 19.8N 91.7W 1001 36
1200UTC 06.07.2024 96 20.5N 93.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 07.07.2024 108 21.3N 95.4W 1000 40
1200UTC 07.07.2024 120 22.2N 96.8W 999 39
0000UTC 08.07.2024 132 23.4N 98.2W 1000 38
1200UTC 08.07.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[NWMSGuy]

Anyone think the norther gulf will eventually be impacted by Beryl or do you believe impacts more so for Texas/Mexico?

 

[Brent]

Anyone think the norther gulf will eventually be impacted by Beryl or do you believe impacts more so for Texas/Mexico?

Probably Texas Louisiana mostly. It's still showing it to be a lot weaker by then too

 

[lexxnchloe]

Anyone think the norther gulf will eventually be impacted by Beryl or do you believe impacts more so for Texas/Mexico?