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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

Still a Category 3. 120 mph, 968 mb.


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085800_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to have a large area
of strong convection near the center, although the overall cloud
pattern has become less symmetric. This matches the radar imagery
from Grand Cayman which shows a well-defined eyewall on the
northern side but remains open on the southern side. There isn't
much reason to believe that the gradual filling seen in the last
aircraft mission has stopped, and the initial wind speed is set to
105 kt, a bit lower than what the last aircraft data supported.
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters should be in the cyclone
within a few hours for a better intensity estimate.

Beryl appears to be moving west-northwestward or 285/17 kt.
Overall, there are no significant changes to the track forecast. A
large ridge centered over the southeastern U.S. should cause Beryl
to move westward or west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a course toward the
Yucatan Peninsula early Friday and emerging into the southern Gulf
of Mexico early Saturday. The western periphery of the ridge is
forecast to weaken due to a series of shortwaves moving over the
Central Plains, causing Beryl to slow down and turn northwestward
this weekend. While there isn't an atypical amount of track spread
by the time Beryl impacts the western Gulf Coast early next week,
the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles, so it is too early to
pinpoint a specific region for the worst hazards. The new NHC
forecast is close to the model consensus and the previous forecast.

Water vapor images show a upper-level trough moving west-
southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico, helping to impart
moderate-to-strong shear over Beryl. While the hurricane has been
an over-performer so far, this magnitude of shear should cause
notable weakening over the next day or so, but Beryl is expected to
still be a hurricane near the Yucatan tomorrow. After emerging into
the Gulf of Mexico, Beryl will likely have a couple of days to
re-strengthen over warm waters with light or moderate shear. Almost
all of the model guidance show the system near hurricane strength as
Beryl approaches the western Gulf Coast, and so does the official
forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the
previous one, but should be considered of low confidence due to the
inherent uncertainties of intensity forecasts in moderate shear.

Key Messages:

1. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge, damaging waves, and areas of
flooding are expected to occur in the Cayman Islands today where a
Hurricane Warning remains in effect.

2. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize
beginning tonight as Beryl approaches that area as a hurricane.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect
for portions of that area.

3. There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of
Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in
eastern Mexico and southern Texas should monitor the progress of
Beryl. Regardless of the exact track, rip currents could cause
life-threatening beach conditions beginning late Friday and
continuing through the weekend across much of the Gulf coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 18.5N 81.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 19.5N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 20.3N 89.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/1800Z 22.3N 93.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 25.2N 97.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR COAST
120H 09/0600Z 27.0N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
 
100600 1839N 08107W 6951 02932 9640 +201 +203 144029 036 075 001 01
5:06 CDT

100430 1845N 08107W 6936 02978 9754 +135 +147 108078 087 101 011 01
5:04 CDT
101 kts = 116 mph
 
NHC 11AM forecast yesterday:
36H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.5W 90 KT 105 MPH


NHC 5AM forecast today:
12H 04/1800Z 19.0N 83.6W 95 KT 110 MPH


NHC 11AM actual location:
INIT 04/1500Z 19.0N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

By comparing these 3, one can see the trend that she gets as far N as 19.0N at a further E longitude: note that current location of 19.0N is with longitude of 82.6W vs 85.5W on yesterday’s 11AM forecast and 83.6W on today’s 5AM forecast. The implications are that this may mean a further N landfall in the W Gulf than earlier forecasted.
 
12Z Euro: slightly N of its 0Z run and near yesterday’s 12Z run; it is ~90 miles S of TX border, which is where 12Z UKMET is and is between 12Z GFS and 12Z CMC


So, from N to S for 12Z global runs:

ICON (Matagorda)

GFS (60 miles S of TX border)

Euro/UKMET (90 miles S of TX border)

CMC (125 miles S of TX border)
 
Finally just below major H status:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.4W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
12Z HWRF.....at the TX/MX border at 958.....Looks like NHC likes that spot too since they put the "H" on it (center of their cone). LOL

hwrf_ref_02L_fh96-96.gif
 
accu35 said:
I just don’t understood why models have it going there with this north trend happening? Icon seems more realistic
Click to expand...
It will be more realistic when the path shows how far south it crosses the peninsula. NHC is indicating speed is a key input.

NHC 11:00 am discussion -
"While the guidance has come into better agreement, there is a spread in the guidance landfall points from northeastern Mexico to the middle Texas coast, and users are reminded that the average error at day 4 is about 150 miles. Thus, it is still too early to pinpoint a specific region
for the worst hazards. The new official forecast is similar to, but a touch slower than, the previous forecast and it lies close to the
consensus models."
 
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2024

...CENTER OF BERYL HEADING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES EXPECTED
ON THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 84.3 West. Beryl is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with
the center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico early Friday. Beryl is expected to emerge over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and move northwestward
across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast before the center makes
landfall, with additional weakening expected while Beryl crosses
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow re-intensification is expected when
Beryl moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
 
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