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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

Levi Cowan’s latest (7 min video), which was recorded within the last hour:

 
GaWx said:
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Beryl has become better organized this morning. Satellite images
show deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center, and
Brownsville radar has been showing an eyewall forming, although
still open on the northwest side. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft recently reported maximum flight-level winds of 62
kt with the central pressure falling to 992 mb, so the initial wind
speed is raised to 55 kt.

Further intensification is likely as Beryl moves over very warm
waters within light shear conditions. Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility if the core can become isolated from the dry
air that has been inhibiting intensification during the last day or
so. While there are no changes to the intensity forecast based on
the latest guidance, we are expecting Beryl to be intensifying up
until landfall early Monday, and people should be preparing for the
possibility of a category 2 hurricane landfall.

Beryl continues to move northwestward at 9 kt. The storm
should turn north-northwest this afternoon and make landfall
along the middle Texas coast early on Monday. The new forecast
is very close to the previous one, just a shade to the east. After
Beryl moves inland, the latest guidance still shows the system
accelerating farther northeastward and become a post-tropical
cyclone. This should bring the threat of flash flooding well into
Missouri.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 25.9N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 27.1N 95.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 29.2N 96.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 31.4N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1200Z 33.6N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 36.2N 91.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 38.6N 89.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 42.8N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 46.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

*Edit: note the forecasted 85 mph as of 7AM CDT is when it has already been inland a few hours thus implying higher forecasted landfalling max winds.
Click to expand...
There it is again from NHC....
"Rapid intensification is a DISTINCT POSSIBILITY".....

That means that it clearly could happen......
 
Henry2326 said:
There it is again from NHC....
"Rapid intensification is a DISTINCT POSSIBILITY".....

That means that it clearly could happen......
Click to expand...

Indeed, rapid for a short period is possible. That’s why I feel a cat 2 (~100 mph) like the 6Z HWRF has is a very reasonable possibility. Note that should it occur that this would be RI (due to the low shear and up to 88F SSTs) as opposed to historic/explosive intensification like what Beryl did on approach to the Windwards. The center’s too broad for that, fortunately. But a strengthening cat 2 would be bad enough. I earlier mentioned an outside shot at a low end cat 3, but I feel that’s become an even more remote possibility now. So, either a cat 1 or else a 2 (if there’s RI) is my current call.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, rapid for a short period is possible. That’s why I feel a cat 2 (~100 mph) like the 6Z HWRF has is a very reasonable possibility. Note that should it occur that this would be RI (due to the low shear and up to 88F SSTs) as opposed to historic/explosive intensification like what Beryl did on approach to the Windwards. The center’s too broad for that, fortunately. But a strengthening cat 2 would be bad enough. I earlier mentioned an outside shot at a low end cat 3, but I feel that’s become an even more remote possibility now. So, either a cat 1 or else a 2 (if there’s RI) is my current call.
Click to expand...

Soon after I further minimized the chance for a low end cat 3 as per the above, the 12Z has exactly that, a 960 mb 112 mph landfall. With my thinking not having changed over the last hour and the other 12Z hurricane runs having only a cat 1/970s lowest SLP, I'm discounting this outlier at least for now. Besides, the HWRF sometimes is too strong.
 
From NHC:

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 95.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
 
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Beryl continues to gradual organize
with more banding features near the center, expanding outflow and
strong bursts of convection rotating around the eyewall. However,
dry air is still present within the inner core, keeping the
intensification slow at this time, with only a broken banded
eyewall structure. While the central pressure reported by an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has fallen to 988 mb, there
hasn't been much change in the winds reported, so the intensity
remains 55 kt.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm.

All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and
higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall
timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for
near rapid intensification through landfall.

Beryl has turned north-northwest at about 10 kt. The storm should
turn northward overnight before making landfall along the middle
Texas coast early on Monday before dawn. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one through landfall. After Beryl moves
inland, the latest guidance turns the system northeastward late
tomorrow and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. The long-term
track is a bit faster and east of the last one, consistent with a
blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from the north entrance to the Padre Island
National Seashore to Sabine Pass, including Matagorda Bay and
Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should follow any advice
given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast tonight and early Monday. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight
through Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas
Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding
is also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 26.8N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 28.3N 95.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 30.4N 95.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 32.6N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 10/0600Z 37.2N 89.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 39.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 43.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
GaWx said:
Soon after I further minimized the chance for a low end cat 3 as per the above, the 12Z has exactly that, a 960 mb 112 mph landfall. With my thinking not having changed over the last hour and the other 12Z hurricane runs having only a cat 1/970s lowest SLP, I'm discounting this outlier at least for now. Besides, the HWRF sometimes is too strong.
Click to expand...
No surprise, I'm all in with HWRF. It's basically the only model that has been effective with this storm.
4:00 NHC says this which supports the HWRF.

"The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the storm."
 
Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS OF TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning south of Port Aransas has been changed to a
Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning south of Port Aransas, including Corpus
Christi Bay, has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Port Mansfield has been
discontinued.
 
GaWx said:
It is slowly getting stronger. The latest extrapolated SLP from recon (as of 30 minutes ago) was 983.7 mb, which was ~2 mb lower than 90 minutes earlier.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's nothing crazy but it has been slowly strengthening for hours

Also winds always lag behind pressure
 
Meanwhile another dropsonde had 988 mb. So, based on dropsondes, Beryl has not been strengthening over the last 6 hrs.
Also, this last recon center fix was actually a shade E of N though that could easily be just due to a wobble.
 
Hard to say what Beryl means for the rest of the season. The approach to the Texas coast should get it to 75 mph
 
GaWx said:
Meanwhile another dropsonde had 988 mb. So, based on dropsondes, Beryl has not been strengthening over the last 6 hrs.
Also, this last recon center fix was actually a shade E of N though that could easily be just due to a wobble.
Click to expand...

Drops found a few winds 60-65 on the east side at the surface but everywhere else is 40-50ish at the surface. Not sure it has enough time to rebuild a core that would produce anything more than a small area of hurricane conditions at the surface.
 



New recon going on now curious to see if there were any changes with this current burst
 
lexxnchloe said:
Hard to say what Beryl means for the rest of the season. The approach to the Texas coast should get it to 75 mph
Click to expand...

It's July but I will say the record breaking 2020 season also had a Cat 1 into Texas in July

Who really knows though
 
Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better
organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center,
with new convective elements emerging around the northern and
southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from
the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted
a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However,
the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence
of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt
based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level
wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass
through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity
for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly
fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb.

The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for
intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight.
The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow
Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential
for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still
indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly
the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting
factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h
forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak
intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and
is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland.

The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt,
but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of
due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the
center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between
Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term
NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After
landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone.
 
Waiting on a few more passes by recon but presentation looks to be getting increasingly better. Things could really get going here, convection not collapsing like we’ve seen the last few days. Good thing it’s not far from landfall don’t wanna know what could’ve been if it had even 1 more day over water.
 
NE WOBBLE?? FROM WHAT IM SEEING IT LOOKS LIKE IT AND IF SO JAMICA BEACH AND GAVLESTON WILL BE LANDFALL AREA

THIS IS WHAT IM SEEING ON THE LATEST IR AND WV SAT IMAGES
 
Apparently this was one of the reasons for upgrade to hurricane:

“These radar echoes were the reasoning for the upgrade of #Beryl. Winds up to 88 mph are being measured at about 10,000 feet aloft. That translates into surface winds of 75 mph, supporting a hurricane.”




Also, the decision may have been influenced by this buoy report:

NOAA buoy 42019 recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph
(97 km/h) and a wind gust of 74 mph (119 km/h). The buoy also
reported a pressure of 992.2 mb (29.30 inches).

In addition, the latest dropsonde showed pressure dropped to 985 mb.
 
Capture.PNG

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH
FLOODING, AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. Beryl is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected this morning. On the forecast track, the center
of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas coast
during the next several hours. Beryl is forecast to turn
northeastward and move farther inland over eastern Texas and
Arkansas late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected before the center reaches the
Texas coast. Significant weakening is expected after landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda, Texas,
recently reported sustained winds of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a wind
gust of 69 mph (111 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches)
 
Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...BERYL NEARING THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...
...200 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make
landfall within the next few hours. Conditions are deteriorating
with dangerous storm surge and flash flooding. Sustained
tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have
already been reported along the coast.

A WeatherFlow station (XMBG) located at Matagorda Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph
(120 km/h).

Another position update will be provided at 300 AM CDT (0800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 95.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
KHGX_loop.gif
 
300 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...
...300 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Beryl is nearing the middle Texas coast and is expected to make
landfall within the next hour or two. Life-threatening storm surge
and heavy rainfall is ongoing across portions of Texas. Sustained
tropical-storm-force winds and hurricane-force wind gust have
already been reported along the coast, these winds will continue to
spread inland.

A NOS station (8773146) located at Matagorda City recently reported
a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a gust of 86 mph (139
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 96.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
 
It got down to 979.4 mb at 2:57 CDT.

075700 2830N 09556W 6967 02987 9794 +150 +119 124012 015 019 004 00
 
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