accu35
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Well, if you go by this gfs run and not the others this early
Well, if you go by this gfs run and not the others this early
Interesting turn toward TX that wasn't there yesterday.....
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And NHC basically says "we don't know yet"....The ICON has some company at 12Z as the JMA (I know, not at all one of the better models) has Beryl hit Galveston. (See image below) Also, the NAVGEM (I know it is probably an even worse model in general) has a hit at mid-TX coast. So, both of these very much in the fwiw category.
12Z JMA:
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Thanks - the map is on tropical tidbits....good to know that it lags.Henry,
Thanks for your post. FYI, the latest UKMET (12Z) (blue line) has actually shifted S to near Tampico. Your map shows the 0Z UKMET. I know your map says 12Z, but those aren’t actually all 12Z runs. This causes confusion all of the time and thus I don’t know why they’re labeled this way.
2:00 NHC discussion - They don't believe any of the operational models for intensity. That puts the placement in the models suspect too since a stronger cane acts different than a weak one....and why right now I'm watching the HWRF. It's the only one that has performed with any degree of accuracy with this storm.
Good Ole JB said possible Texas or Louisiana landfall last Friday. We shall seeInteresting turn toward TX that wasn't there yesterday.....
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I heard from one of my friends on the main island of Grenada. He said it was not as bad as Ivan for them, but obviously Carriacou and Petit Martinique are devestated, dare I say... uninhabitable. The lightning in the eyewall as it engulfed the entire island was hard to watch.Gonna be a late evening. Been lurking here for years and I have to thank y'all for helping me learn about canes. I moved from N. Louisiana to S. Louisiana in 2000 and became fascinated by canes in 2002 after Isidore and Lili came through within a week of each other. Now here I am 21 years later and I'm worried for my friends in Grenada.
I was in Grenada for 22 days this past Feb. and March for work. I met some great people and became good friends with several of them. The resort I worked at, which just opened in April, is probably going to be submerged. It's on the SE side of the island in La Sagesse Bay. I'm hoping for a best case scenario where the eye passes between Grenada and Carriacou. That would give them 110mph winds from the South about 12:00PM AST.
They will get a good punch, but it's better than a direct hit.