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Tropical Tropical Storm Beryl 2024

lexxnchloe said:
It appears it will run into very unfavorable conditions.

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Not sure I'm on board with this. GFS has it hitting the islands at 970 while in reality its hitting at 946 at the moment and may go lower. Will be interested to see what happens to the forecast when they build in reality.
 
12Z HWRF has it at 941 in approach to Jamaica and 953 at approach to Cayman. That is extremely different than GFS, but I'm an HWRF fan so I can buy in to the possibility until I see something different. So far HWRF has performed much better than other models on this storm.

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Henry2326 said:
12Z HWRF has it at 941 in approach to Jamaica and 953 at approach to Cayman. That is extremely different than GFS, but I'm an HWRF fan so I can buy in to the possibility until I see something different. So far HWRF has performed much better than other models on this storm.

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Looks like some shear but Beryl is such a beast it has little effect.


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That kind of hit on the south side of Jamaica would be catastrophic.


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BHS1975 said:
Looks like some shear but Beryl is such a beast it has little effect.


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12z HWRF is on the northern edge of the NHC cone but half the storm stays over water as it barely threads the needle of the peninsula. HWRF continues to flirt with a more northerly pass of the peninsula with a 945 on approach and 947 as it comes ashore. A more northerly pass would possibly put the US back in play.

NHC acknowledges this in the 2:00 discussion:
"At days 3-5, there is some increased
spread in the track guidance, likely regarding the strength of the
steering ridge as Beryl approaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and the Yucatan Peninsula. This portion of the forecast was nudged
slightly north of the previous one, but still lies south of the
consensus aids."


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Henry2326 said:
Not sure I'm on board with this. GFS has it hitting the islands at 970 while in reality its hitting at 946 at the moment and may go lower. Will be interested to see what happens to the forecast when they build in reality.
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A 150 mph storm, and the old Saffir-Simpson Scale with Pressure would suggest the pressure could definitely go lower than it is now.


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SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------

ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/012051.shtml
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beryl again
this evening.
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Goalposts is currently off the menu.

205328_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
So close


...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERYL EVEN STRONGER AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
 
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