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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

Well, now down in pressure a bit.....Here is the current steering map. Still kinda in the "lull zone" You can see the trof to the NE of it dipping down into TN...Will remain to be seen how much that "tugs" on Barry. Either, I expect slow motion again today.

wg8dlm2.gif
 
Check this local out on twitter. Lake Pontchartrain is flooding. Wonder where the 12-24 inches of rain in NO will be getting pumped to if The River is cresting Levees and The Lake is full?

 
Fountainguy97 said:
Well we will not see any rapid intensification at landfall with Barry. Most likely we will have a slowly strengthening high end TS or low end cat 1. Strengthening storms are always worse than a weakening system.

Basically a strengthening low end cat 1 can be as bad as a weakening mid/high end cat 1. But this is all highly variable.

Barry will at MAX be a low end cat one. It would be extremely shocking to see it wrap up and bomb out in the little time it has left
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Yeah, I wouldnt count on that senario of a strengthening system being much worse than a weakening system here unless it rapidly organizes. Right now that strong convective burst is the reason for the strengthening which is likely fueled by the northern shear. To see real organization we need to see some sort of banding to start happening.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Is that blowup of convection just a wannabe CDO ? Seems kinda like it
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Yep. Looks good to the glance, but shear fueled.

Another note, this thing will be very hard to track visually with all the little vorts rotating around. One strong one is actually exiting the convective shield pretty fast right now.
 
is it just me or is the center abt to make landfall

It may just be a very strong vort but it sure looks like the larger circulation is following it.goes16_vis_02L_201907121717.jpg
 
Mississippi Canyon,LA (MDJ) ASOS reports gust of 76 knots (87.5 mph) from S @ 1715Z KMDJ 121715Z AUTO 17066G76KT 1 3/4SM BR SCT014 SCT019 27/25 A2943 RMK A01
 
Fountainguy97 said:
is it just me or is the center abt to make landfall

It may just be a very strong vort but it sure looks like the larger circulation is following it.View attachment 21062
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Last couple of frames now looks like that strong vort in the center is turning west around the broader circulation.... it's a mess and will probably look better once on land and it starts to fill in.

But yeah it certainly looks very close to landfall
 
I know it's the NAM and it's junk, especially with TC, but it's interesting how it shows the center doing a little loop just offshore, almost like it is showing the main center being looped around by the broader circulation and I swear almost looks like it's trying to do that now
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 90.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
metwannabe said:
I know it's the NAM and it's junk, especially with TC, but it's interesting how it shows the center doing a little loop just offshore, almost like it is showing the main center being looped around by the broader circulation and I swear almost looks like it's trying to do that now
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I agree.....it pushes the intensity escalation to after midnight tonight.
 
Wow just missed landfall with llc. Time to loop back around and get under MLC/Blob tonight for one more shot I suppose. Never seen this before
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Uhhh, I think swimming here is a bad idea:

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giphy.gif
 
It's weird. It's been a mix of sun and clouds and a little breezy so far today. It almost feels pleasant. We did get a little rain earlier but not much. Hard to believe the center of Barry is not far off the coast right now.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
Radar becoming very useful. You can see the small vort in the larger circulation.

Notice how small the broad circulation has become.

You can literally watch showers popping up tightening that core.

Very cool and rare opportunity to see a storm organize on radar

D6D5B296-B28C-4E97-BC88-8D4FDE824247.jpeg
 
Recon obs are almost supporting a hurricane now 61 kt sfmr

That was barely offshore in no convection too
 
Last edited:
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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IS ANYONE ON HERE ABLE TO ACCESS THE NWC CHAT ROOMS. THE SERVER SEEMS TO BE DOWN AS I CAN NOT CONNECT
 
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