Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

[deltadog03]

Well, now down in pressure a bit.....Here is the current steering map. Still kinda in the "lull zone" You can see the trof to the NE of it dipping down into TN...Will remain to be seen how much that "tugs" on Barry. Either, I expect slow motion again today.

 

[NCSNOW]

Check this local out on twitter. Lake Pontchartrain is flooding. Wonder where the 12-24 inches of rain in NO will be getting pumped to if The River is cresting Levees and The Lake is full?

 

[Arcc]

Well we will not see any rapid intensification at landfall with Barry. Most likely we will have a slowly strengthening high end TS or low end cat 1. Strengthening storms are always worse than a weakening system.

Basically a strengthening low end cat 1 can be as bad as a weakening mid/high end cat 1. But this is all highly variable.

Barry will at MAX be a low end cat one. It would be extremely shocking to see it wrap up and bomb out in the little time it has left

Yeah, I wouldnt count on that senario of a strengthening system being much worse than a weakening system here unless it rapidly organizes. Right now that strong convective burst is the reason for the strengthening which is likely fueled by the northern shear. To see real organization we need to see some sort of banding to start happening.

 

[Snowfan]

73 kt flight level winds per the recon.

 

[Brent]

Hurricane force at FL now

Also the strongest winds are much closer to the center now on the south side

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Who really cares how strong it is? The big thing here is going to be the flooding. LA and MS already in serious flooding problems, and 1-2 feet of rain is going to make that dramatically worse.

 

[NCSNOW]

I was shaking my head at the hwrf this morning. But it may have been onto something. This thing is really getting its act together fast now.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[stormcentral]

Starting to take on a buzz saw.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That big blow up is still a little misplaced tho

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is that blowup of convection just a wannabe CDO ? Seems kinda like it

 

[Arcc]

Is that blowup of convection just a wannabe CDO ? Seems kinda like it

Yep. Looks good to the glance, but shear fueled.

Another note, this thing will be very hard to track visually with all the little vorts rotating around. One strong one is actually exiting the convective shield pretty fast right now.

 

[Metwannabe]

Looks impressive but keep in mind that the center is in the red circle, so still very lopsided

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Looks impressive but keep in mind that the center is in the red circle, so still very lopsided

View attachment 21059

Yep, if that center reforms under the blow-up, this could get nasty real quick. Don't see that happening just yet.

 

[Brent]

Center drifted south between recon passes

 

[Arcc]

Center drifted south between recon passesView attachment 21060

Really shows how broad the center is.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Center drifted south between recon passesView attachment 21060

Probably from the intense -80 C convection trying to tug at it

 

[Fountainguy97]

is it just me or is the center abt to make landfall

It may just be a very strong vort but it sure looks like the larger circulation is following it.

 

[EV/WS]

Mississippi Canyon,LA (MDJ) ASOS reports gust of 76 knots (87.5 mph) from S @ 1715Z KMDJ 121715Z AUTO 17066G76KT 1 3/4SM BR SCT014 SCT019 27/25 A2943 RMK A01

 

[Henry2326]

I was shaking my head at the hwrf this morning. But it may have been onto something. This thing is really getting its act together fast now.

View attachment 21057

After Michael, I will never say "never" to the short term forecast.