It looks horrid this morning! Not going to make it to Hurricane, IMO. But results/ flooding, will be the same!
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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry
- Thread starter accu35
- Start date
Yep, looks like your standard "if that makes hurricane it will be the ugliest hurricane ever" early season gulf storm.
Barry is still very poorly organized while still sucking up the dry mainland air. Its also is still dealing with small low level centers rotating around the main one.
Barry is still very poorly organized while still sucking up the dry mainland air. Its also is still dealing with small low level centers rotating around the main one.
Fountainguy97
Member
They did find 62knt flight lvl and 54knt surface winds. that's 71mph and 62 mph.
Not terribly far away from hurricane status even with all its ruggedness.
It's always amazing to see the different tropical systems. Some systems look like this and barely have TS winds. Barry is pretty resilient given what its survived and strengthened through. Its not everyday you see a completely exposed center and still strengthening
Not terribly far away from hurricane status even with all its ruggedness.
It's always amazing to see the different tropical systems. Some systems look like this and barely have TS winds. Barry is pretty resilient given what its survived and strengthened through. Its not everyday you see a completely exposed center and still strengthening
Philstorm91
Member
My concern is that this thing tries to pull a Harvey as it makes landfall. By that I'm referring mostly to Harvey's intensification right up to landfall. If Barry gathers all that strength to that point, it may release the energy more potently in the form of winds and rain along the path than it would otherwise.
With the blowup of convection to the south of the center I wouldn't be surprised if it gets pulled southward or reforms under that convection. If so it will likely make hurricane strength.
Fountainguy97
Member
Well we will not see any rapid intensification at landfall with Barry. Most likely we will have a slowly strengthening high end TS or low end cat 1. Strengthening storms are always worse than a weakening system.
Basically a strengthening low end cat 1 can be as bad as a weakening mid/high end cat 1. But this is all highly variable.
Barry will at MAX be a low end cat one. It would be extremely shocking to see it wrap up and bomb out in the little time it has left
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah models (hrrr is what ive watched a lot) try to wrap those convective bursts around the core. Almost like a spin top. That burst winds the core up then it relaxes then another burst winds it up further. The end result is a slowly strengthening storm. IF you have the center get under convection then that changes the game.
IMO low end cat one is easily achievable.
Philstorm91
Member
Yeah, sorry, I just meant the idea of it strengthening despite land nearby. I'd be shocked if Barry pushed much past 80 mph at this point. Up to now the storm basically looks impressive on satellite, with the exception of the northern half of it missing deep convection.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah that recent burst is very cold. We should see Barry make low end cane status if that keeps up
Philstorm91
Member
Looks like Barry has a healthy burst of convection ongoing just south of the center. Maybe going for ramp up at last?
Fountainguy97
Member
With the shear relaxing the Gulf bath water is really helping out.
Very nice burst very close to the center. Interesting next few hours!
Very nice burst very close to the center. Interesting next few hours!
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Well Barry it’s either now or never. Lol
For those folks in the direct path, hopefully it stays ugly and is never.
Brent
Member
Looks better than last night
Brent
Member
Wow 65 mph
Hurricane just got more likely
Hurricane just got more likely
Philstorm91
Member
NHC disco now calling for Barry to make a run at Hurricane strength just before landfall:
Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.
Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.
Barry and lee are sorta similar
Brent
Member
Still lopsided but looks way more tropical here last night it looked more extratropical lol
Pressure is down to 994.1 mb per recon.