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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

Fountainguy97 said:
It’s not bad at tropics although it does like to over strengthen storms in the long range.

I’ve watched it today and it has done well. Although it’s best to only watch it to abt 12 hrs out. Any further just use it for trends.
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Is it good on its track?
 
accu35 said:
Is it good on its track?
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I’d trust it’s track more than it’s intensity. But still it’s a short range model. And intensity can impact track lol.

I usually look at it inside 12 hrs. Outside that it gets iffy in most circumstances. And out to 36 hrs is very sketchy. I’ve seen it do very well out to 36 hrs but also completely bust as well.




No model will ever be THE model to use. That’s why we use the blends and cone of uncertainty!
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.025509_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Tropical storm Barry 11 PM EDT NHC update:

Current conditions:
Location: 27.9°N 89.4°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Future forecast:
INIT: 50 MPH
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 65 MPH
36H: 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H: 50 MPH...INLAND
72H: 35 MPH...INLAND
96H: 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H: 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
The things this storm could do if sheer lessens. The door is slowly closing but still time for major surprises.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
The things this storm could do if sheer lessens. The door is slowly closing but still time for major surprises.
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its tomorrow or never, honestly I think tomorrow is when the models had it taking off anyway(and also had it going to Texas to give it more time), the Louisiana option was always gonna be weaker I feel just because of less time

speaking of Texas, the UKMET finally went to Louisiana this run after many runs going towards SE TX
 
Brent said:
its tomorrow or never, honestly I think tomorrow is when the models had it taking off anyway(and also had it going to Texas to give it more time), the Louisiana option was always gonna be weaker I feel just because of less time

speaking of Texas, the UKMET finally went to Louisiana this run after many runs going towards SE TX
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TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET had been doing a Jose to Houston thanks to left bias. In 2017, the UKMET was all alone in going at FL with Jose 5 times in a row and all at cat 4-5 to boot before then suddenly shifting way east.
 
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GaWx said:
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET had been doing a Jose to Houston thanks to left bias. In 2017, the UKMET was all alone in going at FL with Jose 5 times in a row and all at cat 4-5 to boot before then suddenly shifting way east.
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I know people have been saying its a great model but its had some high profile busts always to the left

I believe it took Florence to Florida too a few times
 
Brent said:
I know people have been saying its a great model but its had some high profile busts always to the left

I believe it took Florence to Florida too a few times
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It was the best and absolutely fantastic with Irma. But then it busted hard with the very next storm, Jose. That's why the westerly tracks into FL were taken so seriously here and elsewhere.
I didn't remember that it did similar for Florence. So, there's still another one.

In other model news, the GEFS mean continues to be ~100 miles W of the GFS in W LA.
 
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The Euro still has the center cross central LA early Sat.
 
Euro tracks from Kentucky to central Virginia. About to get more humid and tropical in the Carolinas. Then redevelops off the coast.
 
Going to make a run at hurricane strength. Always heard a strengthening storm is completely different than a decaying storm when hitting land.
 
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