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The June Thread 2021

From WRAL

A heads-up for tomorrow evening as it appears we could see a convergence zone set up from an outflow boundary to the north and the sea breeze front colliding over us. The end result of this will be a line of heavy showers and storms with a flooding potential. This rain will sag south through the overnight and may last through 2-4AM.

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Feisty storm here maybe a little bit of broad rotation. Of course nothing worth issuing a warning over but if it where daylight you’d probably have a nice low cloud deck


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ryan1234 said:
Good thing the short range models have been absolute garbage so far this summer. Lol.
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In a perfect world we catch some rain from the disturbance today and tomorrow but I'm not sold we can get that lucky. The disturbance today might be too late and we start getting a lot of CINH in place and the outflow does like it did Monday where the outflow generated convection becomes less and less as the evening progresses. I really like the disturbance tomorrow but I worry we end up with too much subsidence on the back of todays disturbance and possibly too much debris cloudiness. We will see
 
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SD said:
In a perfect world we catch some rain from the disturbance today and tomorrow but I'm not sold we can get that lucky. The disturbance today might be too late and we start getting a lot of CINH in place and the outflow does like it did Monday where the outflow generated convection becomes less and less as the evening progresses. I really like the disturbance tomorrow but I worry we end up with too might subsidence on the back of todays disturbance and possibly too much debris clouds. We will see
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Yeah, today is one of those days where it's basically wait and see. I know Monday wasn't great for your area but we got smacked here. It'll be interesting to see how things play out. Hoping for something!
 
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SD said:
In a perfect world we catch some rain from the disturbance today and tomorrow but I'm not sold we can get that lucky. The disturbance today might be too late and we start getting a lot of CINH in place and the outflow does like it did Monday where the outflow generated convection becomes less and less as the evening progresses. I really like the disturbance tomorrow but I worry we end up with too much subsidence on the back of todays disturbance and possibly too much debris cloudiness. We will see
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I wouldn’t be too worried although with our luck we will se how find a way in between cells .. but regardless the storms look much more widespread then past days and it even goes into the night tonight .. and multiple rounds showing up tomorrow ... i dont know i Think many continue the beneficial rain parade today and tomorrow
 
ryan1234 said:
Prime example of just how bad modeling has been. Basically every model showed your area getting a really good soaking.
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This is exactly what I was talking about a couple weeks ago when saying you really can’t look at precip output when looking at these models this time of the year. Much of precip right now comes from convection firing up in the afternoon and as you said above, even the short range models are having a difficult time with total coverage and amounts. This is where we just got to look at the overall setup. Right now I feel good about the opportunity for most of us in the Carolinas to get some widespread soaking rain the next couple days. Hopefully the Triad folks can get in on the action… they’ve been fairly unlucky compared to other area the last few days
 
Hrrr looks like crap later now lol, we’ll see what it does I feel like things initialize early, it’s been very poor lately with that
 
Well we are now officially within range and they are calling for 4-5ft waves officially but like I said always add 1-3 feet to the forecast. 6 to 7 foot just east of where the boat usually ends up.
 

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Sink zone doing work. Good luck crowbarring any action in here.

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Damnit man. @SD @Myfrotho704_ @metwannabe how come when the gfs locks on to the WORST possible outcome it will be balls on 9 days out but cant get a big snowstorm right 12 hours out? That's some serious BS.

As of 3 AM Wed...Increasing confidence in SCA conditions for
the waters Friday into the weekend. SW winds 10-20 kt Thu, with
seas 2-4 ft. SW winds increase to 15-25 kt Friday and Fri night,
and portions of the waters will likely see SCA conditions
develop, mainly south of Oregon Inlet and the Pamlico Sound,
with gusty winds and building seas. The front is progged to push
through the waters Fri night and Sat, though still some
uncertainty in the timing. Gusty NE winds will develop behind
the front 15-25 kt, likely keeping seas at 4-7 ft. NE/ENE winds
diminish to 15 kt or less by Sun afternoon, though moderate
onshore flow may keep seas elevated at 5-6 ft into Sun night.
 
Some decent storms beginning to form off the mountains as they move east. Will be interesting to see if we can get some more organized line segments going.
 
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