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Pattern The Great December Dump

Brad P made a good point on a video he just posted on youtube. It's not really about the pattern next week, it's more about setting the stage late next week. After next weekend, I think we really get into the favorable pattern then. Seems like an eternity away I know.
 
Robert West said:
Brad P made a good point on a video he just posted on youtube. It's not really about the pattern next week, it's more about setting the stage late next week. After next weekend, I think we really get into the favorable pattern then. Seems like an eternity away I know.
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Wanna post the YouTube link???
 
Pretty good support for Tennessee on GEFS
GEFSMA_prec_snens_126.png
 
Storm5 said:
That system late next week /weekend is interesting . Same system as the euro had


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Yea, just need a little more push of cold air. It could turn out to be a big system for a lot of people on here.
 
Gefs looked a little bit better at H5, also little not as important but the precip maps have increased for a icy threat in CAD areas8F39F7A2-E363-42DE-9D39-D13321815406.jpeg
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Im not sure we want Dec to be different than previous Decembers given the last 2 were epic.
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That depends on location. December 2017 was epic for parts of the deep south and mountains of NC, but absolutely sucked for those south and east of I-85. December 2018 had snowfall farther east into NC, but absolutely sucked for the deep south. Aside from the early month winter storms, temperatures were generally above-normal with no frozen precipitation. The last time we had a truly good December was 2010.
 
GaWx said:
SE Cold wx enthusiasts will largely not like the 12Z GEFS for midmonth because it is much warmer than recent runs.
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I dont look past a week out anymore it’s pointless . The ensembles are all over the place. The gefs is always too cold and the EPS has been too warm lately.


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That storm late next week definitely looks interesting. Its definitely about the timing, GEFS is a bit more excited about it
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gfs is trending to leaving more energy behind instead of it getting absorbed, this allows moisture to run into cold (overrunning), and it’s this allows a more classic overrunning look vs a anafrontal look, certainly the separation helps View attachment 27235
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Yea obviously still not great but better. Digging the shortwave more or amplifying it are a few ways we can slow the entire thing down and give us a solution that tends towards Miller B instead of a piss-poor anafront w/ cold air chasing moisture & having the cold high failing to build in time.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh72_trend.gif
 
CyclonicFury said:
That depends on location. December 2017 was epic for parts of the deep south and mountains of NC, but absolutely sucked for those south and east of I-85. December 2018 had snowfall farther east into NC, but absolutely sucked for the deep south. Aside from the early month winter storms, temperatures were generally above-normal with no frozen precipitation. The last time we had a truly good December was 2010.
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By epic i meant the last 2 Decembers someone in the southeast experienced a major winter storm. I think most on here care more about snow than temps. Having a warm December is fine with most as long as theres some snow thrown in too.
 
It’s weird seeing the GEFS not as bullish nomore and not spitting nothing much nomore because at H5 it’s improved early in the game for the past 2 daysEE5BADAE-910F-4EF6-88A8-1D4E0418AAEA.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yea obviously still not great but better. Digging the shortwave more or amplifying it are a few ways we can slow the entire thing down and give us a solution that tends towards Miller B instead of a piss-poor anafront w/ cold air chasing moisture & having the cold high failing to build in time.

View attachment 27250
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Did the snow mean increased from previous run?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
There are other factors at play not just that energy .. multiple things can happen in a model to produce something for us so you have to let the models play out before judging
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No way we’re getting a winter storm with that H5 look, no seperation means it’s sheared, yea there’s many other factors but the big main thing you want is seperation, otherwise you getting a sheared mess that produces light overruning or a anafront which does not favor areas east of the mountains
 
LovingGulfLows said:
A big phase that far south is really rare...like March 1993 rare. You're likely gonna need a LP system that is around 980mb or so in the Carolinas for it to bring enough cold air for the comma head snows on the backside. I just wouldn't bank on a system like that.
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Not really. You really do not need a super powerful low to get snow from a phaser.
 
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