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Pattern The Great December Dump

The Euro does indeed have a strong storm system, timing is totally off though. The 12z from yesterday had better timing. The Euro has been all over the place as well as the GFS. We still have a long way to go!

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GaWx said:
If I get the chance, I’m going to see how many times ATL got a major winter storm with the NAO over +1 AND the AO over +2 since 1950. Any guesses?
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Answer: out of 28 major winter storms of any kind at ATL since 1950, I found 1 with NAO above +1 AND AO above +2. That was the 3/1/2009 major snow.

*Edited for date correction
 
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Didn’t see it mentioned but 2-5” of rain in December for western NC would likely result in flooding.
 
What’s amazing is cold air maybe what’s lacking. When we thought cold air would be plentiful. Just timing may not be there


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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
GFS actually a much better LP placement on the 6Z. Runs the gulf states and then up 95 to just off the OBX.
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The problem is the high pressure is near Bermuda as the precip arrives. That’s a huge difference from yesterday and not sure we can get it back, as nothing is slowing up the flow
 
I don’t wanna seem like a weenie, but the GFS is still improving, look at the Southwest, time is starting to get a little bit lower for changes tho, still some left tho for sure 84E37626-7BC7-40FF-A008-5FB4DF3CDC75.gif
 
The GEFS however, is a slight tick in the wrong direction, shortwave is more NE/faster and there’s more connection From the NE/faster shift, only good news is the northern energy is trying to have less to do with it but that NE tick doesn’t help B2CB54BD-77B3-4800-B24E-AB753CCC382D.gif
 
These are hopefully things like we’ve seen in past winter storms where it bounces around, but gotta realize that the window is closing, and the shortwave that is getting closer may start to show trends in models since it will be observed much better, 120-138 hours is still plenty of time but it’s no cushion
 
If euro and gfs says no winter weather next week. Then probably no winter weather next week. We are still in a good pattern and the models indicate that. But a good pattern doesn’t always produce. I’m hoping we hold on to a good pattern into early January and get something then. Good news is the pattern is right for something to pop. Just got to get timing down.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
These are hopefully things like we’ve seen in past winter storms where it bounces around, but gotta realize that the window is closing, and the shortwave that is getting closer may start to show trends in models since it will be observed much better, 120-138 hours is still plenty of time but it’s no cushion
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Good thing is, even if the window is closing on this one, the pattern seems to support other potentials down the road.

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Even if this storm we’ve been looking at for next week doesn’t pan out.....The pattern is load with potential as we get further into December. What a great change of pace compared to the last several Decembers!


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Isn’t there a 06z euro, if there is can somebody post what the energy looks like in the Southwest vs the 00z ?
 
metwannabe said:
Good thing is, even if the window is closing on this one, the pattern seems to support other potentials down the road.

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And snowfall ensembles in the long range have been trending like a rollercoaster. Looking at vorticity maps even inside Day 10 around the 14th, the models really have no clue over North America. We’re good to speculate until patterns are 500mb actually remain consistent..


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Jon said:
And snowfall ensembles in the long range have been trending like a rollercoaster. Looking at vorticity maps even inside Day 10 around the 14th, the models really have no clue over North America. We’re good to speculate until patterns are 500mb actually remain consistent..


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Every run or two, each model picks up a plate of spaghetti and throws it at the wall and draws that as H5. It's that bad. Each time they get closer to the wall but it still the result is not consistent. At least we aren't dead set on a torch.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Isn’t there a 06z euro, if there is can somebody post what the energy looks like in the Southwest vs the 00z ?
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I don’t have the anomaly maps they’re not loading for some reason, but you can tell with the heights it’s hanging back more
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Jon said:
I don’t have the anomaly maps they’re not loading for some reason, but you can tell with the heights it’s hanging back more
b59a35828c341c6e663b2876d3253e8a.gif



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I’d take that shift, only issue is that vortex in the north taking a nudge south a bit, but it’s nice to see that shortwave digging more
 
WxWatch said:
Haha, well, I'm not that 14 year old kid. I don't think my model that I posted is BS lol. It's manually drawn, which is never always going to be perfect. I'm still experimenting around on what other things I can input on my model. Of course, I'm always listening to feedback from others on how and what I can approve on my model.

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I dont think this will constitute banter...
Look...I admire your unwavering confidence and you have, in fact, brought some good info to the thread. The problem people are having, however, is that your exuberance is also bringing bad info into the thread. Firstly, your language suggests supreme confidence. That kind of confidence, without a hint of doubt, and many instances of hyperbolic wording is generally considered careless in the weather community. Secondly, your method of "blending" models is certainly not consistent with common model blending tactics such as those used by the NWS or WPC. You cant just select individual model runs from several different models at widely varying timeframes that support your prediction. That is not blending. That is cherry picking. Lastly, and perhaps the most irritating to me is your "model". A MS paint picture of a predicted low track does not a model make. Unless you have a powerful supercomputer running an algorithmic program that you have written and you are feeding it many thousands of data points from your massive network of surface and atmospheric observations (among many other things), then you do not have a computer model. So please stop calling it such. I thank you for your enthusiasm in weather forecasts and weather in general but I think I speak for many on this forum in requesting that you consider toning down the hyperbole and tempering your confidence a bit. Perhaps then we can all get along as we trudge through the always difficult southern winter.

At the end of the day, I really hope you are correct and will be the first to congratulate you if your forecast verifies. Thanks. Carry on.
 
Arcc said:
I'm honestly surprised there isn't more chatter about the massive phaser at the end of the Euro. It has been advertising a big storm there for days.
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Haven't looked but probably not getting much attention because in the end big phasers usually only end up good if you're VA north.
 
Arcc said:
I'm honestly surprised there isn't more chatter about the massive phaser at the end of the Euro. It has been advertising a big storm there for days.
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Unfortunately, it begins the phase over the Carolina Piedmont, which will be cool to watch from a pure meteorological interest, but not so much for us Southern winter-weather lovers (I know you know this). But alas, all of these details will certainly change between now and whenever the storm arrives.
 
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