NoSnowATL
Member
Whats your thinking for January? Late December looks great.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Whats your thinking for January? Late December looks great.
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The track of the system itself is perfect for us in MS, AL, GA and TN. The biggest issue is having to rely on the phase to pull in enough cold air .
tennessee storm
Member
Exactly. ... enough cold air can get involved ... going be a nice wrap around of snow on the nw side of slp
NoSnowATL
Member
I have also seen a few people push out 93 as close composite for this winter, we only had a T of snow until that small Blizzard in March.
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Im not sure we want Dec to be different than previous Decembers given the last 2 were epic.
Where were they epic at in your opinion?
Not sure I consider it epic. Up where you were it probably was epic. Last Dec we had a great event the first week but after that the winter was awful. I would happily take a 17/18 repeat.
Given the past storms and how they were modeled they always warm up 8-9 days out only to come back 5-7 days out. I feel like it has something to do with the ensembles and how they compute the data from the launches. I feel like we may be surprised on the next suite on both suites.
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Dec is shaping up to be -EPO/+PNA pattern and I am thinking/hoping that continues through winter like 2014 and 2015. That pattern of course brings variability.
LovingGulfLows
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A big phase that far south is really rare...like March 1993 rare. You're likely gonna need a LP system that is around 980mb or so in the Carolinas for it to bring enough cold air for the comma head snows on the backside. I just wouldn't bank on a system like that.
NoSnowATL
Member
93 was triple phase if my memory is right . Very rare.
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12z Nam shows wonderful separation.
FWIW the 12z Icon shows moisture with temps in mid to low 30s in GA and Carolina at the end of run?
Gfs is still improving 
Probably gonna see some overrunning snow, still looks solid in the SW and hasn’t been absorbed yet like the previous run
Yup here's your overruning
Gfs is trending to leaving more energy behind instead of it getting absorbed, this allows moisture to run into cold (overrunning), and it’s this allows a more classic overrunning look vs a anafrontal look, certainly the separation helps 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Not looking bad, if the energy could be a bit less strung out (I think?) I'd be very interested if I were in Tennessee but as it is some could see some light snows there.
LovingGulfLows
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Yeah this looks like a potential TN valley storm to me. The cold air simply doesn't dive far enough south.
Yeah, you can see how the changes at H5 have affected the “axis” of precipitation, more favorable look, we could certainly get a better/stronger shortwave than what the GFS spits out tho, still lots of work to do
ATLwxfan
Member
Yup here's your overruning
Still mostly for Tennessee and the Apps but better than nothing.
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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the NAM would've been a good one if it went past 84
Compared to the GFS
Compared to the GFS
Yeah, our best shot would be the shortwave slowing down more to allow that surface high pressure to filter in colder air then get that shortwave to move in
ICE storm incoming on GFS
Fountainguy97
Member
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the NAM would've been a good one if it went past 84
Compared to the GFS
Oh yeah. The nam closes off our SW. the longer it stays intact the better results downstream.
gfs did strengthen our SW energy
the stronger the SW the more “independence” it will have and will resist the pull of the frontal energy.
So we want to see the NAM strength verify. Of course it’s the long range NAM so...
Spoke too soon my guy. That high was never locked in. Almost all rain
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The GFS definitely a big step in the right direction.
its a big difference compared to the last suite. I think it took a better step
Correct me if I’m wrong but NAM is usually pretty right around 66hr with setup?
Also energy looks to be trending stronger?
Fountainguy97
Member
nam not too far off that euro run. BUT it’s the NAM. And it likes to amp up SW in its long range
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I like what the GFS is showing later in the run even if its hard to see it happening. Phases late, manages to run inland, screws most people over in the MA/NE.
No I honestly hope the MA/NE get some to build snowpack which will help with high pressure staying in place longer, which in the end will benefit us in the SE.
Wowzers look at all the cold air @hr213
Running out of time to get a closed low of that strength, at least the gfs took a better step, but right now things are sheared and quick, like what @Fountainguy97 said we need a stronger closed low so it would slow down a bit and help seperate itself, that would Help it become more of a miller B/CAD type setup (would allow time for the high pressure to scoot East) vs a Ana frontal/overrunning setup and a sheared wave we’re seeing now
Let us see if we get a weenie run in the med/long range of the gfs. Definitely plenty of cold air to the north.
