• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Unfortunately, it begins the phase over the Carolina Piedmont, which will be cool to watch from a pure meteorological interest, but not so much for us Southern winter-weather lovers (I know you know this). But alas, all of these details will certainly change between now and whenever the storm arrives.

The track of the system itself is perfect for us in MS, AL, GA and TN. The biggest issue is having to rely on the phase to pull in enough cold air .
 
Im not sure we want Dec to be different than previous Decembers given the last 2 were epic.

Not sure I consider it epic. Up where you were it probably was epic. Last Dec we had a great event the first week but after that the winter was awful. I would happily take a 17/18 repeat.
 
Given the past storms and how they were modeled they always warm up 8-9 days out only to come back 5-7 days out. I feel like it has something to do with the ensembles and how they compute the data from the launches. I feel like we may be surprised on the next suite on both suites.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The track of the system itself is perfect for us in MS, AL, GA and TN. The biggest issue is having to rely on the phase to pull in enough cold air .

A big phase that far south is really rare...like March 1993 rare. You're likely gonna need a LP system that is around 980mb or so in the Carolinas for it to bring enough cold air for the comma head snows on the backside. I just wouldn't bank on a system like that.
 
A big phase that far south is really rare...like March 1993 rare. You're likely gonna need a LP system that is around 980mb or so in the Carolinas for it to bring enough cold air for the comma head snows on the backside. I just wouldn't bank on a system like that.

93 was triple phase if my memory is right . Very rare.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
12z Nam shows wonderful separation.
Well, that's something at least
namconus_z500_vort_us_48.png
 
Gfs is trending to leaving more energy behind instead of it getting absorbed, this allows moisture to run into cold (overrunning), and it’s this allows a more classic overrunning look vs a anafrontal look, certainly the separation helps 68F3C5CD-2CA6-470F-B2DF-25D0AAFC0BAF.gif
 
Not looking bad, if the energy could be a bit less strung out (I think?) I'd be very interested if I were in Tennessee but as it is some could see some light snows there.
 
Not looking bad, if the energy could be a bit less strung out (I think?) I'd be very interested if I were in Tennessee but as it is some could see some light snows there.

Yeah this looks like a potential TN valley storm to me. The cold air simply doesn't dive far enough south.
 
Not looking bad, if the energy could be a bit less strung out (I think?) I'd be very interested if I were in Tennessee but as it is some could see some light snows there.

Yeah, you can see how the changes at H5 have affected the “axis” of precipitation, more favorable look, we could certainly get a better/stronger shortwave than what the GFS spits out tho, still lots of work to do16B220D7-1558-4936-9B1F-AA40ABD46470.gif
 
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the NAM would've been a good one if it went past 84
namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png


Compared to the GFS
gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png

Oh yeah. The nam closes off our SW. the longer it stays intact the better results downstream.

gfs did strengthen our SW energy

the stronger the SW the more “independence” it will have and will resist the pull of the frontal energy.
So we want to see the NAM strength verify. Of course it’s the long range NAM so...

6C2D5A78-4F26-46AE-8E31-07A68E2D1391.gif
 
I like what the GFS is showing later in the run even if its hard to see it happening. Phases late, manages to run inland, screws most people over in the MA/NE.
 
I like what the GFS is showing later in the run even if its hard to see it happening. Phases late, manages to run inland, screws most people over in the MA/NE.
No I honestly hope the MA/NE get some to build snowpack which will help with high pressure staying in place longer, which in the end will benefit us in the SE.
 
This was the Euro from a couple of days ago that had the big snow/ice storm, versus the 0z Euro and latest 12z GFS.

View attachment 27240
View attachment 27239

View attachment 27237
Running out of time to get a closed low of that strength, at least the gfs took a better step, but right now things are sheared and quick, like what @Fountainguy97 said we need a stronger closed low so it would slow down a bit and help seperate itself, that would Help it become more of a miller B/CAD type setup (would allow time for the high pressure to scoot East) vs a Ana frontal/overrunning setup and a sheared wave we’re seeing now
 
Back
Top