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Pattern The Great December Dump

SD said:
Thanks. Right off hand I would assume y axis is height in mbar x is wind with the right being east left being west in m/s

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That's pretty much what I said, I just mentioned that this was called a Radiosonde and the QBO is between 10-40mb. I'll add post an explanation into the scientific research thread that was made the other day.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Reason for concern?
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Why do you think there may be reason for concern?

My prediction is that the MJO will end up somewhere between the GEFS and EPS since GEFS tends to have too high an amp in 6-7 and not progressive enough whereas EPS tends to do the opposite. Note that GEFS amp has come down and the EPS is now trying to come out of the COD.

I doubt it goes backward from phase 7 to phase 6 like the GEFS has. I think that is likely due to bias because that rarely happens. Even if it does, it would be temporary and would soon afterward go back toward the colder phases in all likelihood.

I think these two models are telling us we're likely headed for low amp (likely a little outside the COD at least at first) in the general direction of the cold phases 7-8-1 for early Jan. This is about as good a look as any from my perspective of wanting it cold in the SE because low amp has generally been colder in January than high amp. So, if the SE stays warm dominated in the first half of January, it wouldn't be due to the MJO, itself, imo. Hopefully it won't and the model consensus is telling us it won't.
 
GaWx said:
Why do you think there may be reason for concern?

My prediction is that the MJO will end up somewhere between the GEFS and EPS since GEFS tends to have too high an amp in 6-7 and not progressive enough whereas EPS tends to do the opposite. Note that GEFS amp has come down and the EPS is now trying to come out of the COD.

I doubt it goes backward from phase 7 to phase 6 like the GEFS has. I think that is likely due to bias because that rarely happens. Even if it does, it would be temporary and would soon afterward go back toward the colder phases in all likelihood.

I think these two models are telling us we're likely headed for low amp (likely a little outside the COD at least at first) in the general direction of the cold phases 7-8-1 for early Jan. This is about as good a look as any from my perspective of wanting it cold in the SE because low amp has generally been colder in January than high amp. So, if the SE stays warm dominated in the first half of January, it wouldn't be due to the MJO, itself, imo. Hopefully it won't and the model consensus is telling us it won't.
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The key I think you’re mentioning is that the MJO is staying in a low amplitude. I seem to remember much of the problem we were seeing last winter was the MJO was so amped up that it ended dominating the pattern even when other indices were looking decent.
 
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More snow in the GOMEX than in RDU on member 18? There's a run for you Phil. Still nice to see this many members with snow The EPS seems to be a little less excited and more Upper South oriented such as TN and the apps versus I-20 or so.
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This is from a poster at American Weather:
"Be interesting to see how the RMMS do,you have alot of stuff that's fixing to happen along the IDL,a low, Rossby wave , Kelvin Wave ,WWB with a more suppressed IOD for a change,the strongest SST'S along the IDL.I still wonder if they will whiff out,but that's what they show right now."
 
Jessy89 said:
Cold but no moisture.


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That’s because the vortex dislodging that far south is pretty unreasonable. And cold does not = snow..the STJ was not shut off even in this run..it was just pushed into south Florida..but we’re moving towards an idea of some good cold air supply towards the end of the first week in January and an active STJ..main takeaway here
 
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