BHS1975
Member
Yeap just need upper 20s for some nice powder.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeap just need upper 20s for some nice powder.
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RollTide18
Member
Grain of Salt blah blah
ATLwxfan
Member
12z GFS should bring out the “If, then” statements and the “players on the field” cliches.
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tonysc
Member
Good point. Who throw's in the towel before the game even starts?
Mr. Golf
Member
@Webberweather53, the IOD atmospheric coupling is hindering the mjo activity or progression. Do you know how long that may last? I would like to see the mjo start to move out of the COD. Just curious on your thoughts on that.
Mr. Golf
Member
If and when the epo turns negative, that should send some of that our way.
pcbjr
Member
Mr. Golf
Member
Phil, it was a colder look i think is what he meant. Trying to get there.Larry,
Not quite sure how to take that one ...
Phil
When looking at averages for January for the SE US over 40 or so year period ending 2014, the COD had actually not been a bad place to be in January if one likes cold. Actually, inside or just outside the COD averaged colder in Jan at Atlanta and nearby areas during 1975-2014 vs outside for all phases. Of course, these are just averages and don't mean anywhere near all cases are that way. Also, with GW, I wonder if this relationship still holds as warmth has been so dominant. Also, the MJO is but one of many factors. Furthermore, I'm not sure about Arkansas though I suspect it would be somewhat similar.
pcbjr
Member
I know ... just joshin' with Larry ... only real smile I've had all day came from Savannah ...
Mr. Golf
Member
Larry, what I've been saying still has merit. I don't want us to be chasing unicorns all winter this winter.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS is finally settling in w/ the EPO in the longer-term (no longer becoming anywhere near as positive). North Atlantic blocking is finally beginning to show up more frequently in recent GEFS runs which often happens when legit tropical forcing enters the West Pacific.
looks like a bowling ball ULL pattern that slides under the Canada ridge
ATLwxfan
Member
Energy in the SW is a little bit interesting if that GL low can move NE and can bomb out, into a big cold vortex or 50/50, but that’s a stretch
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim, this wave over TX would probably be capable of producing wintry weather around New Years if this Euro run went out more than 10 days. Obviously, it's futile to speculate so far out but the point that's trying to be made here is that this is very far from being a blowtorch.
Certainly would wager that this week's cut-off ULL may be far from the last one we see this winter esp if the STJ continues to remain active & we have blocking over eastern Canada. Also notice, the main lobe of tropospheric polar vortex is still lurking around in our backyard just north of Greenland.
Certainly would wager that this week's cut-off ULL may be far from the last one we see this winter esp if the STJ continues to remain active & we have blocking over eastern Canada. Also notice, the main lobe of tropospheric polar vortex is still lurking around in our backyard just north of Greenland.