Pattern The Great December Dump

[Webberweather53]

Once again, the longer-term doesn't look quite as warm on the EPS, lots of southern stream systems are undercutting the block over east-SE Canada, keeping us at least seasonable. This active southern jet is almost certainly not going away anytime soon either especially once the MJO enters the Western Pacific, it'll probably become even stronger if anything as result of the added westerly momentum afforded by the West-Central Pac convection.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How much worse/better can this get between now and December 31st? I don’t necessarily hate the angle of cold (trough) or lack thereof

 

[Webberweather53]

Once again, the longer-term doesn't look quite as warm on the EPS, lots of southern stream systems are undercutting the block over east-SE Canada, keeping us at least seasonable. This active southern jet is almost certainly not going away anytime soon either especially once the MJO enters the Western Pacific, it'll probably become even stronger if anything as result of the added westerly momentum afforded by the West-Central Pac convection.

View attachment 28503

This West-Central Pacific MJO event is going to be strongly coupled to & feeding back on the underlying ocean that's continuing to lean evermore towards El Nino. If we can get the -EPO/+TNH pattern we've seen countless times the last several years and have the TPV descend towards south-central Canada in early-mid January which seems at least probable this far out, we'll put ourselves into an amazing position to crank out a storm in that general time frame. Details will remain unresolved for the foreseeable future.

 

[Arcc]

Once again, the longer-term doesn't look quite as warm on the EPS, lots of southern stream systems are undercutting the block over east-SE Canada, keeping us at least seasonable. This active southern jet is almost certainly not going away anytime soon either especially once the MJO enters the Western Pacific, it'll probably become even stronger if anything as result of the added westerly momentum afforded by the West-Central Pac convection.

View attachment 28503

That pattern right there could bring a surprise or two. Right track at the right time and modified Pacific air can bring a surprise or two. I really like the 558dm line being pretty far south.

 

[Chazwin]

How much worse/better can this get between now and December 31st? I don’t necessarily hate the angle of cold (trough) or lack thereofView attachment 28504

That’s a look that could produce a good CAD event

 

[GaWx]

I’m about to take my coldest walk of the season yet as it is ~39. The coldest prior to this was during the strong cold snap of mid Nov, when I think it was about 41-42.
This is how to really enjoy a cold front.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Low of 26 tonight. Had a low of 28 this morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mr. Golf]

This West-Central Pacific MJO event is going to be strongly coupled to & feeding back on the underlying ocean that's continuing to lean evermore towards El Nino. If we can get the -EPO/+TNH pattern we've seen countless times the last several years and have the TPV descend towards south-central Canada in early-mid January which seems at least probable this far out, we'll put ourselves into an amazing position to crank out a storm in that general time frame. Details will remain unresolved for the foreseeable future.View attachment 28505

Eric, the euro and eps dont get the mjo past phase 6, and it heads back toward the COD if I'm reading it correctly off the RMM charts. Perhaps they haven't caught on to what your referring to currently. I heard somewhere that the eastern IO convection is firing up stronger in January. Don't think we want that.

 

[Nomanslandva]

59 degree high forecast on Christmas day. That blows. Sorry we are having to look at January now. EPS looks OK sometime late week two looking at members. We just need to get something to hold.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Fresh vodka air tonight. This is what it’s all about. Minus the snow. Love it

 

[WxWatch]

I'm not sure about other's, but I'm watching New Years Eve/day time window for frozen precip. There are possibilities all across the board.

The system that's showing up during the 28th/29th window may cut or it may not. The latest GEFS is indicating that the system will get held back. If this system does cut, a baroclinic wave may form on the tail end of the boundary from the cutting system between the 29th - 31st window. Or, if the system don't cut, the S/W may kick out just in time to impact the Southeastern US by New Years Eve/Day. If that were the case, a full blown winter storm could be possible. Either way, I do think there will be a window of opportunity for frozen precip during the New Years Eve/day time window. The GFS OP (should be taken lightly, especially the long range of course) but it's showing another ULL dropping down into the southwest by Jan. 1st. The GEFS does not have that feature. So, who knows at this point, there could be several opportunities of frozen precip through early Jan.

I do think the late month system will cut though, because that's the pattern transitioning storm system. The pattern is looking like it will transition to a colder pattern across the east, including the southeastern US. During the transition, that's when the stage could be setting up for a possible winter event. As always, we'll see how it plays out. I've noticed the models haven't had good consistency with anything in the 7 day window. It seems like they have been changing something drastically in the near term. So, I would advise to expect to see some unexpected projections from these models - even in the short term.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Don’t look now, but NAM has frozen precip for WNC Sunday morning.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS crap salad out to 282..gonna be a long January with mid 1030’s dropping down into the Dakotas

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Not sure how/when or what the progression is crawling out of this big +AO being modeled. How long does it take to recover from something like this? Such bad timing

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know it’s a OP model, and LR at that, but geez the changes on the GFS hurts your eyes when you look at it for a time

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I know it’s a OP model, and LR at that, but geez the changes on the GFS hurts your eyes when you look at it for a time View attachment 28542

That gif loop almost gave me a seizure

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Not sure how/when or what the progression is crawling out of this big +AO being modeled. How long does it take to recover from something like this? Such bad timing

If it ends up being as bad as modeled going into January then at least the first 3 weeks of January is toast. Ridiculous having to deal with this every year.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I know it’s a OP model, and LR at that, but geez the changes on the GFS hurts your eyes when you look at it for a time View attachment 28542

I think the GFS struggles late because it likes to dump a wave in the southwest and just leave it there for 200 hours. So it’s literally impossible to figure out what the pacific pattern is going to be, which is the determining factor on where and how far south arctic air will make it thus determining whether or not a winter storm is even a possibility around here

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I think the GFS struggles late because it likes to dump a wave in the southwest and just leave it there for 200 hours. So it’s literally impossible to figure out what the pacific pattern is going to be, which is the determining factor on where and how far south arctic air will make it thus determining whether or not a winter storm is even a possibility around here

Yep, we’ve seen it time to time, creating those monstrous SW shortwaves, which creates either lots of rain in the SW/ south or crazy mid south ice storms, if there’s one thing that has been spotty but showing up on the GFS, it’s that SE Canada vortex

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’d be nice to have that rarified air in a tappable position before mid January ??