Sun angle gets me regardless of if its Dec 21 or March 21. I say that tongue in cheek, as I'm in GA, but it did make me think, i always think i get less snow because i'm "further South", but (not accounting for elevation and things like that), its because my sun angle is always higher than say someone 300 miles North at the same elevations and general landscape?
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Sun angle gets me regardless of if its Dec 21 or March 21. I say that tongue in cheek, as I'm in GA, but it did make me think, i always think i get less snow because i'm "further South", but (not accounting for elevation and things like that), its because my sun angle is always higher than say someone 300 miles North at the same elevations and general landscape?
snowlover91
Member
ICON 12z run showed some Western NC snow. I believe this is the first ICON run to show this with the system.
GFS so far
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's nice to see the Atlantic Canada vortex continuing to deepen on successive runs and dig even further south, this is going to yield a stronger preceding cold push over the NE US in the medium range.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This run ought to be interesting.
I mean..if this can continue ??
Fountainguy97
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These 2 trends are intrinsically linked to one another.
Deeper trough off of Newfoundland = more CAA & confluence over New England = stronger CAD high at day 5. It also helps when our s/w isn't getting squashed into oblivion as it was on earlier runs.
Deeper trough off of Newfoundland = more CAA & confluence over New England = stronger CAD high at day 5. It also helps when our s/w isn't getting squashed into oblivion as it was on earlier runs.
If only it were _______ (insert winter month)
If only it were 10 days later it would be January instead of Dec 22. That would make a huge difference.
What a storm track. Can't believe we have this terrible marginal air to work with a storm track like this here in SC. Not sure if even everything fell just right that we could get enough cold air down here. What a track though, I hope we get something like this in January.
NoSnowATL
Member
We will and mostly likely February. Beautiful track.
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I don't see any set of conditions that will lead to snow for non-mountainous areas of NC that do NOT include a storm blowing up off the coast. The big 50/50 type low in the North Atlantic building back is good, but it will suppress the storm and still not provide enough cold air. We need the storm to strongly intensify in closest proximity to the marginally cold air over the upper Southeast. If that doesn't happen, it's either going to be dry or rain.
And by the way, I don't think the same storm type or track in February or January or March or next winter would necessarily matter all that much. The same bad upper air pattern can easily be in place at any time throughout the winter. If we get tracks like this all winter long, then odds are, we'll link up with an actual cold pattern. But that is not a guarantee.
All that said, I'm fairly certain that we're going to see several legitimate winter threats this year, that are solid winter storms...not this 1 in a million "so you're telling me there's a chance" stuff.
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And by the way, I don't think the same storm type or track in February or January or March or next winter would necessarily matter all that much. The same bad upper air pattern can easily be in place at any time throughout the winter. If we get tracks like this all winter long, then odds are, we'll link up with an actual cold pattern. But that is not a guarantee.
All that said, I'm fairly certain that we're going to see several legitimate winter threats this year, that are solid winter storms...not this 1 in a million "so you're telling me there's a chance" stuff.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I actually think this setup could support significant snow/ice outside the mountains in the NW piedmont and far western piedmont in areas like the Triad and maybe Greenville-Spartanburg & Charlotte if the CAD is strong enough, but yes those in/around the coastal plain like RDU will likely need a big coastal cyclone to score here
What are we looking for at 500mb to indicate a trend towards a stronger CAD?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've mentioned this earlier, but we need a stronger & more equatorward trough over Atlantic Canada coupled w/ a beefier s/w that can overrun & reinforce the CAD dome through diabatic processes. Most models are trending in this direction, especially the EPS. It could still be a major challenge to get wintry precipitation in Greenville-Spartanburg & Charlotte even if everything goes our way, but those in the northwestern piedmont of NC, mountains, & mid-Atlantic have to feel halfway decent about their odds if we continue along this path
I feel like we'd need to see the wave gain latitude to our west in order for that to play out. It seems too far south right now. So we'd need to see the energy start to get modeled farther north and the CAD to get modeled even stronger. Otherwise, we'll be suppressed and or rainy.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
CMC looks early on like it’s following the trend of the day.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks can be deceptive at 500mb & even 850mb in the longer term. While this seems like a legitimate warm-up & "blowtorch" on the surface around or just after Christmas, this type of pattern usually yields CAD events that keeps things colder/cloudy in CAD favored areas of the SE US thanks to the persistent Atlantic Canada vortex. Keep this in mind going forward.
