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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jessy89 said:
Is it fair to say this threat basically went away. It’s just not cold enough to snow.
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I think it is more fair to say that it never was more than a low percentage threat and that mainly for NC, and that there still is no more than a low percentage chance for NC with very low at most other places. Discussing something intensely at a wx BB doesn't at all require it to be more than a low threat in the first place. I assume you agree.
 
The 18z GFS run was a close call for NC verbatim w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s. The real big kick to the groin on this run actually comes from northern stream interaction that disrupts and shears the cut-off ULL (as I noted earlier today sometimes occurs w/ phase interaction), hence we basically lose any additional source of in-situ cold air aside from the cold air damming of course.

Leaving our southern stream wave alone & getting a slower/more pronounced 50/50 low are a few of the primary keys we need to get a storm in this setup.

gfs_z500_vort_eus_24.png
 
GaWx said:
I think it is more fair to say that it never was more than a low percentage threat and that mainly for NC, and that there still is no more than a low percentage chance for NC with very low at most other places. Discussing something intensely at a wx BB doesn't at all require it to be more than a low threat in the first place. I assume you agree.
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discussing (and studying) is one thing ... obsessing is quite another ... o_O
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 18z GFS run was a close call for NC verbatim w/ temps in the mid-upper 30s. The real big kick to the groin on this run actually comes from northern stream interaction that disrupts and shears the cut-off ULL (as I noted earlier today sometimes occurs w/ phase interaction), hence we basically lose any additional source of in-situ cold air aside from the cold air damming of course.

View attachment 28175
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yeah, if this run had the same amount of blocking it did last run around the GLs with less of a weakness, it probably would of been golden
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah, if this run had the same amount of blocking it did last run around the GLs with less of a weakness, it probably would of been golden
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We really need this Atlantic Canada trough to pump the breaks a bit, took a baby step in that direction here but yeah too little too late in this instance.

In a perfect world, I'd like to have the s/w already over the southern plains by the time this trough leaves the coast of Maine.

Might be asking for too much

gfs_z500a_namer_fh96_trend (1).gif
 
I think right now look at snow as a bonus and enjoy seasonal to slightly above normal temps we’ve been dealing with and will continue to deal with, so much better than torching, and this just proves that a colder monthly average doesn’t exactly mean more snowy, past 2 years have proved that wrong somewhere in the SE
 
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