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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jessy89 said:
I hate that it’s trending to a NC/Virginia only storm.


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What I really want to see is it trend much further W and the energy turn positive sooner so areas like AL and GA can get in on the action too. It's not too far from happening we just need a few adjustments like some of the GEFS ensembles have had.
 
ATLwxfan said:
It’s amazing with such an active storm track, that all we have to talk about is a opportunity that’s trending away from us.


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That sure is what it appears. I think based on gfs consistency. There will be a storm but at this point not many people on this board will see much. Unless we can get this thing started in the gulf.


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I guess this could trend better but at this point I would rather see the GFS with a suppressed storm in the Bahamas and the Euro with at least a stronger 50/50 and more confluence. My only hope is that it is a very different set up and with phasing it makes it so much more difficult to nail down
 
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Stormdoc said:
I guess this could trends better but at this point I would rather see the GFS with a suppressed storm in the Bahamas and the Euro with at least a stronger 50/50 and more confluence. My only hope is that it is a very different set up and with phasing it makes it so much more difficult to nail down
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Which is normally the case in the midst of a chaotic split flow pattern such as the one we are in right now. I mean just look how much the Euro is struggling inside 200hr. That tells you about all you need to know
 
Stormdoc said:
I guess this could trends better but at this point I would rather see the GFS with a suppressed storm in the Bahamas and the Euro with at least a stronger 50/50 and more confluence. My only hope is that it is a very different set up and with phasing it makes it so much more difficult to nail down
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That's for you guys in RDU. For us further west, what we are probably looking for is a deeper dig and a faster phase as well as the trough to turn more negative sooner. That would likely be good for not only us but also you guys in NC if there's a good enough cold press that trends as well. Think about it, this thing is being depicted as a bomb on the GFS, but of course the Euro isn't close so you have to be skeptical about that. Suppression in the Bahamas is what the Euro was showing. It only works part of the time on model runs, but the other part they are so suppressed they never come back. The Euro does have a bomb too, but for the NE. That's also what you'll get if it's too far SE.
 
Going out on a limb here but I think major changes likely once the big rain event Tuesday passes. Kind of favoring the north-east right now even tho it’s not modeled. DC to Boston really needs to monitor this closely. It’s just too far out to say if this will include northern NC. unfortunately without a lot of cold air, I don’t see this working for most in the Raleigh to Charlotte corridor. But chances quickly go up north and west of there in the mtns/foothills/north and western piedmont. Had the gfs shown these solutions Wednesday I would just about be all in. Just 4 days too early. Good look trying to keep the storm suppressed that long in this very wet pattern.
 
That energy is gonna be on the US between 6z-18z Wednesday, so if we see things go in the right direction around that time, than we may have something truly legit
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Going out on a limb here but I think major changes likely once the big rain event Tuesday passes. Kind of favoring the north-east right now even tho it’s not modeled. DC to Boston really needs to monitor this closely. It’s just too far out to say if this will include northern NC. unfortunately without a lot of cold air, I don’t see this working for most in the Raleigh to Charlotte corridor. But chances quickly go up north and west of there in the mtns/foothills/north and western piedmont. Had the gfs shown these solutions Wednesday I would just about be all in. Just 4 days too early. Good look trying to keep the storm suppressed that long in this very wet pattern.
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A more northernly track is sorta a issue, that weakness in the GLs is the issue, the blocking is mostly good, we just need that that weakness to go away and we will indeed have a more suppressed storm, but yeah this could go in the NE favor if that weakness in the GL manages to develop and phases with that southern stream energy late, GFS was headed that direction last run
 
The GFS looks better than 06z. More Confluence. Although the 50/50 low is further east
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I know it's the only one showing a winter storm here, but the GFS has been consistently showing one and is not backing down. It looks like there will be a system coming through next Sunday/Monday, and just a matter of what type of precip will it be. Just would feel better about it being snow if the other models came on board, especially the Euro. At the same time, a storm has been showing up for this time period for a good while now, and it is hard to discount the huge potential here.
 
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