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Pattern The Great December Dump

Maybe low in the gulf. This could get interesting further west if timing is right
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_162.png
 
Yup, just as I though gefs starting to show some wrap a round in places further west
 
frank ocean said:
I would trust Benedict Arnold with my deepest secrets before I trusted the GFS is correctly modeling a piece of energy going over the Rockies, coalescing into a ULL and then bombing off the coast. Let's pump some brakes.
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Exactly man. I have seen this story so many times, even when model remain consistent with up to 3-5 run. It always seen to change around hr 120.
 
Canadian is a no go and actually looks worse than the 12z. It'll be interesting to see what the euro has. We are getting to a point where if nothing else jumps in with the gfs you have to simply believe that it's wrong

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Good gawd, 0z GFS showing the low intensifying to a 978mb low off of the southeast coast! That's a CAT. 2 hurricane! :eek:

The low would need to close off sooner to allow snowfall further inland. Luckily, there is still time for this to trend better.
 
WxWatch said:
Good gawd, 0z GFS showing the low intensifying to a 978mb low off of the southeast coast! That's a CAT. 2 hurricane! :eek:

The low would need to close off sooner to allow snowfall further inland. Luckily, there is still time for this to trend better.
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I think a gulf low is very possible with this storm if any. Gefs has been consistent with it
 
accu35 said:
This is the spaghetti plot
GEFSSE_500_hghtens_150.png
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Not sure where the GEFS is getting that from? Perhaps, the wave underneath the northern wave dives down into the Gulf and a phase occurs sooner before the storm tracks towards the southeastern US coast. Which is a possibility, some GEFS members do indeed show a Gulf low and wrap around snow further inland. I do think there will be more wrap around snow, far as northeastern/eastern AL.

gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png
 
WxWatch said:
Since the GFS has been consistent showing this storm system, it makes me question those models you mentioned. I'd really like (as well as others) to see the Euro on board on what the GFS has been showing.
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Keep in mind this is the FV3. We had this type of thing happen last year as well. Heck we had this happen last Saturday.


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