Pattern The Great December Dump

[WxWatch]

South trend isn’t over that’s assuming the GFS’ general setup is correct..which is doubtful

A south trend is actually possible due to the heights building to the north of the storm system. Dramatic changes on the past 4 runs from the GFS.

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[Ollie Williams]

The GFS and Euro are very similar ATM. The difference is, the GFS deepens quicker and has a much more expansive ULL.

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW, a much larger increase in the GEFS incoming.
Through 192

 

[Ollie Williams]

FWIW, a much larger increase in the GEFS incoming.
Through 192

210

 

[pcbjr]

210

E9 for Larry ...

 

[Ollie Williams]

Ensemble Members for those interested
RDU

CLT

GSO

GSP

CAE

ATL

Funny that old Ghostown is more active this is board. Though granted most of their members are in the Carolinas, particularly the mountain areas.

 

[SD]

I'd like to see some signs of the leading cold being held around longer or something being able to phase in. Still though as you are seeing on the gfs getting caught in the right spot with the incoming upper low we could have cold enough 850s to support a nice paste bomb

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[SD]

Start watching the eastern siberia, sea of okhotsk, aleutians, Alaska area. Models are starting to show some movement in that area toward a setup that would be one to send some really cold air into the US by new years

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[pcbjr]

Start watching the eastern siberia, sea of okhotsk, aleutians, Alaska area. Models are starting to show some movement in that area toward a setup that would be one to send some really cold air into the US by new years

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Bingo

 

[SD]

Gefs for visuals

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[ColaSnow]

E9 for Larry ...

<Raise hand> for E3 and E9.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, that gefs run shows the big dog potential of this storm

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

West NC crushjob. The ULL further SW though

My back-yard is literally in the 20 inch bull's eye. I know that will not be the case come verification time. Hard to stay there for 7 days. My only prayer is that it trends south-west instead of north-west. I believe there will be a storm. Question is.... will it have enough dynamics to be a snowstorm?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way

 

[wxdaniel]

Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way

keep your hopes in check, it's just the GFS. How has the euro been trending on this time frame the past 24 hours?

 

[KyloG]

Where’s the EuroDGEX when you need it.

18z EPS

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Ive just looked at some soundings for fun with that snow, and some show up to -4 omega/lift in that heavy snow band, in the DGZ ! That’s intense lift, that would mean a complete paste bomb, again I looked at it for fun, normally looking at that stuff starts becoming important 24-48 hours, we still have a longgg way

Here's a snap-shot at the sounding during the height of the storm. The entire atmosphere is solidly below freezing. This is at least a 10-1 ratio sounding.

 

[SD]

keep your hopes in check, it's just the GFS. How has the euro been trending on this time frame the past 24 hours?

Struggle bus

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Struggle bus

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Been a rough go for the Euro lately.

 

[deltadog03]

Struggle bus

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I think this could be the best overall threat we have seen this early winter season. Not saying it’s going to happen, but I think there is some possibility.