ajr
Member
Doesn’t seem like an ideal upper air pattern with the jet stream originating from the pacific (as opposed to the arctic)
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep. Central US ridge trended stronger.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still looks like there is a threat on the table for the week of the 22nd. Models are still all over the place as usual, but the threat is still there, and that is what usually happens with the models when we have serious potential. Also looks like it could be an all or nothing event for central NC, either a big winter storm or just rain. Of course, that's how it's usually been here ever since 2000.
Oh there is blocking, that one of the reason's why models are showing the storm system amplifying, blocking causes amplification. If enough cold air comes in place, this storm system could turn out to be quite a snow storm, maybe blizzard conditions, but right now, that's far fetched. I'd like to see consistency with OP models as well as more ensemble support before calling for any blizzard conditions.
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pcbjr
Member
Anyone within the sound of this Board will be blessed to see some accumulating flakes for a brief while ...
Already more confluence on this run 
Confluence is making it a colder run ovr
Lol happy hour may live up to its name, prepare to add more to that thread you made @Ollie Williams
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
All I want for Christmas is the 18Z GFS
Liking that HP trend, stronger confluence helps, again tho this is the GFS, which was showing a snowstorm for NC With that light ice event 84 hours before that event...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m not sure I could go to dollar general and get colored pencils and draw better maps than what the gfs just showed. Mercy.
West NC crushjob. The ULL further SW though
South trend isn’t over ? that’s assuming the GFS’ general setup is correct..which is doubtful
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I have to go to a Christmas party soon, I need to get this tent down that’s pitched after watching that run roll in.
If I can get 2” while @Rain Cold only gets a dusting I’ll consider that a win ??West NC crushjob. The ULL further SW though
It’s unfortunate that the EPS doesn’t really support that, and only a few gefs ensembles members support this, and really the GFS is more alone
At least there’s a signal that this storm won’t really have a chance to cut from that blocking above it, that’s what is keeping me interested
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
As bad as the euro has been I wouldn’t worry about that just yet.
If this trend holds, I might take the family to Asheville next weekend.
If those hefty snow totals were to occur, I'd be jealous lol. All in all seriousness though, my confidence is low for that to occur (right now, but that can change.) For one, it's from the GFS OP and for two, it's still a good ways out and I'd expect some more crazy GFS OP solutions. Also, there is no other OP model showing this yet. But, if snow were to occur, I'd expect heavy snowfall because of the storm amplification.West NC crushjob. The ULL further SW though
Yes, the blocking is what's keeping me interested as well. Not only that, it's looking like it's going to be a quite of a storm system and these type of storms that have rapid intensification excites me, especially if snowfall is involved.
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